Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

Burry’s Track Record and Credibility

• Commenters are split: some see a skilled investor who profited on prior macro shorts (e.g., S&P 500 puts in 2023); others call him a “perma-bear” who has “predicted 20 of the last 1–2 crashes,” citing missed upside (e.g., GameStop squeeze) and losing Tesla/ARK-type shorts.
• Reported performance numbers (e.g., ~56% annualized over a period; ~255% over 10 years) are mentioned but questioned as unaudited and not necessarily impressive versus broad index returns.

Size and Nature of the Nvidia/Palantir Bet

• Many emphasize that the headline “$1.1B bet” refers to notional value from a 13F, not the premium paid.
• 13F rules require reporting options as if they were equivalent to holding the underlying shares (delta=1), so actual capital at risk could be much smaller and is not disclosed.
• It’s clear these are put options, not direct shorts, so downside is capped to the premiums; no margin calls on the options themselves.

Why Puts Instead of Shorting

• Several explanations: puts limit losses, avoid borrow/margin recall risk, and give leveraged exposure to a sharp drop.
• Others warn that high implied volatility in NVDA/PLTR means expensive options; the market has already “priced in” a lot of crash risk, making this a tough trade to profit from unless timing is excellent.

Nvidia vs Palantir: Valuation and Business Reality

• Broad agreement that Palantir’s valuation is more extreme: references to ~600x P/E and ~80x forward revenue vs Nvidia at much lower multiples despite similar growth and higher margins.
• Nvidia: many argue shorting it is dangerous—revenue and earnings growth are huge, demand for AI compute appears real, and its software/ecosystem moat (CUDA, tooling) and lack of credible near‑term alternatives are stressed.
• Palantir: seen by many as “government/party” infrastructure with deep integration into surveillance and defense; this political embeddedness may make the business durable but doesn’t justify current multiples in some commenters’ view.

Macro, AI Bubble, and Timing Risk

• Ongoing debate over an AI/tech bubble: some predict an inevitable correction before upcoming elections; others note such crash calls have been made “every year” and markets keep rising.
• “Fed put” and government support are seen as strong forces preventing deep market collapses, though some argue a sector‑specific unwinding (AI/semis) is still plausible.
• Multiple reminders: being early on a short—even if ultimately right—can destroy capital; options suffer time decay and require getting both direction and timing right.

Options Mechanics and Retail Risk

• Long, detailed subthreads explain puts, calls, deltas, theta decay, and the dangers of shorting and option selling.
• Several experienced voices strongly discourage inexperienced retail traders from copying these kinds of trades, recommending “paper trading” or simple index investing instead.