Valve is about to win the console generation

Original Article ↗ Hacker News Discussion ↗

Half-Life 3, VR, and Valve IP

  • Thread opens with HL3 jokes tied to Valve’s three new devices; some speculate about a new Half-Life tied to VR, others point out datamined hints suggesting “HLX” is not VR and that Valve publicly said it’s not working on new VR games.
  • Debate over whether Valve needs iconic exclusives (à la Mario/Kratos) vs. whether Steam itself plus Half‑Life/Portal/CS/Dota is already sufficient “IP gravity.”

“Winning the Console Generation” – Skepticism vs Optimism

  • Many doubt Valve will “win” in the sense of outselling PS5/Switch 2; projected console numbers (tens or hundreds of millions) are seen as unattainable for a Linux PC box.
  • Others argue “winning” could mean:
    • carving out the “enthusiast console” niche,
    • pressuring Sony/Microsoft on pricing and lock‑in,
    • and boosting Linux’s share of Steam from ~3% to 5–6%.
  • Several see Steam Machine more as the end of classic “console generations” than a new winner: just another standardized PC form factor with a console‑like UX.

Library, Pricing, and Ownership

  • Strong enthusiasm for:
    • Immediate access to huge existing Steam libraries, including decades of games and emulators;
    • Lower PC game prices, constant sales, Humble/Epic/Prime giveaways;
    • No paid online subscription and better continuity than console generations.
  • Counterpoint: for many players, Nintendo exclusives or big live‑service titles (Fortnite, FIFA, CoD, GTA, Valorant, etc.) still drive hardware choice.

Anti‑Cheat, Multiplayer, and Missing AAA

  • Major concern: many top multiplayer/sports titles rely on kernel‑level anti‑cheat and currently don’t support Proton/Linux; this is seen as a hard blocker to “mass‑market” success.
  • Some hope sealed‑boot + remote attestation on SteamOS could give Linux a console‑like “trusted” environment without third‑party kernel rootkits.
  • Others argue cheats increasingly use external hardware/AI anyway, so attestation only partially helps, and may clash with Valve’s open‑system ethos.

SteamOS, Immutability, and Openness

  • Immutability is praised for console‑style reliability and easy rollback; some speculate Valve will chain it to TPM‑backed secure boot for multiplayer attestation.
  • Strong positive reaction to Valve’s messaging: you can install other OSes, mod, dual‑boot, and even repurpose the hardware; defaults + Steam’s dominance are expected to keep most users on SteamOS.
  • Some worry about media DRM: lack of 4K Widevine/HDCP on Linux today could limit its role as a living‑room media hub.

Hardware, UX, and Target Market

  • Specs considered roughly PS5‑class but a generation late; many stress price as the single biggest risk.
    • Guesses cluster around $700–$1,000; Valve has reportedly said it will be priced like an “entry‑level PC,” not a subsidized console.
    • At console‑like prices (~$400–$500) it could be huge; at $800+ some predict niche uptake.
  • Target users identified as:
    • console players who want cheap PC‑style libraries without building a rig,
    • PC gamers wanting a couch box without Windows maintenance,
    • families who want a “console” that instantly exposes parents’ Steam backlogs to kids.
  • Many compare to the Steam Deck: Deck proved SteamOS works as a console UX, but some note rough edges (docking, TV output, bugs) and expect a major polish pass to compete in the living room.

Broader Ecosystem Impact

  • Several see this as strategic more than directly commercial:
    • A flagship that proves SteamOS as a console OS, encouraging OEM clones;
    • A way to insulate Valve from Windows enshittification and keep PC gaming open;
    • A “Pixel/Surface‑style” reference device that nudges the entire industry, even if it never rivals PS5/Switch in absolute units.