A new chapter begins for EV batteries with the expiry of key LFP patents

Original Article ↗ Hacker News Discussion ↗

Role of LFP Patents

  • Some argue core LFP patents were already a “non-issue”: royalty flows are tiny relative to the battery market, and real differentiation now comes from newer, still-patented advances (additives, coatings, manufacturing).
  • Others counter that patents did suppress competition outside China, via blocking licenses, high fees, and “mutual assured destruction” patent thickets that deter new entrants and invite trolls.
  • Suggestions include patent pools or “GPL-like” cross-licensing schemes to neutralize trolls, though concerns remain about fees and incentives for low‑quality patents.

Battery Chemistries: LFP, Solid-State, Sodium, Others

  • LFP is seen as practical, cheap, and safe, with sufficient energy density for most cars but less ideal for large trucks/SUVs and cold climates.
  • Cold charging is a recurring theme: heaters and thermal management are viewed by some as an adequate workaround; others call this a “hack” that adds complexity, energy cost, and edge‑case failure modes.
  • Sodium-ion is widely discussed as a likely successor for many uses: better cold performance and charge rates but lower volumetric density and trickier power electronics; timelines to cost parity with LFP range from a few to 10–15 years.
  • Solid-state batteries are compared to fusion: impressive lab results and one‑off demos (cars, bikes, drones), but still extremely expensive and not yet mass‑produced.
  • Niche chemistries like lithium‑titanate are praised for ultra‑fast charging but criticized for low energy density.

IP History and China’s Lead

  • Foundational LFP work came from a Canadian/Quebec lab, with patents licensed via Hydro‑Québec and a major US company allegedly infringing and triggering long legal battles.
  • Commenters say this litigation chilled Western investment while China received favorable domestic licensing and built a huge LFP ecosystem.
  • China is now seen as dominant in batteries and EVs, with recent moves to restrict export of advanced LFP tech and equipment.

Recycling and Regulation

  • EU recycled‑lithium quotas are criticized as potentially constraining growth when total deployed capacity is still ramping; others see them as necessary to capture waste (e.g., vape cells).
  • Concern that “recycled content” rules might incentivize scrapping still‑usable large packs rather than repurposing; practitioners note second‑life use of car packs is logistically and economically limited versus modular stationary batteries.

EV Markets, Tariffs, and Chinese Cars

  • Forecasts discussed: EV adoption slowing in the US but accelerating in countries like Vietnam, driven by cheap Chinese models.
  • Europe and the US are using tariffs to slow Chinese EV imports; some see this as delaying the inevitable, given China’s cost and tech advantages.
  • Several participants want access to $20–30k Chinese EVs in the US but worry about both Chinese and domestic car software collecting data.

Energy Prices and Renewables

  • One side claims an “ideological push” for renewables is driving up European electricity prices via storage, grid, and capex needs.
  • Others counter that wind and solar are now the cheapest new generation, pointing to:
    • Very low off‑peak EV tariffs in the UK tied to renewables.
    • The South Australia experience, where high renewable penetration plus batteries is pushing prices down after an investment phase.
  • There is debate over whether apparent inefficiencies (e.g., old wind turbines removed when subsidies end) reflect bad policy design or rational asset replacement.

Cars vs Public Transit

  • Some see EV focus as perpetuating car dependency; they argue for dramatically expanded, cheap public transit and denser land use.
  • Counterarguments:
    • Many regions are too low‑density or poorly planned for efficient mass transit; personal vehicles remain more practical.
    • Experiences with unreliable or inconvenient transit (especially in US cities) push people toward cars.
    • Others provide examples (Europe, parts of Australia, some US suburbs) where buses and trains work well even for families with small children, with “last mile” handled by walking, bikes, or small vehicles.
  • Historical notes point out that US cities once had extensive transit networks and that auto industry lobbying contributed to their dismantling.

Article as Law-Firm Marketing

  • Multiple comments note the linked piece is effectively an advertisement for legal services (freedom‑to‑operate analyses), likely to emphasize ongoing patent risks even after key expiries.
  • Some think this doesn’t necessarily undermine factual accuracy; others stress the need to view its framing through the lens of attracting clients.