Pakistan says rooftop solar output to exceed grid demand in some hubs next year

Rooftop solar vs. utility business model

• Many argue rooftop solar is eroding the classic utility model where high-volume users help cover fixed grid costs; as demand drops, the model “stops working.”
• Others counter that utilities can and do separate fixed “connection” charges from per‑kWh usage, so they may adapt rather than die.
• Some think demand destruction is overrated because utility‑scale solar remains cheaper and large industrial/datacenter loads will still need the grid.

Grid costs, tariffs, and fairness

• A recurring theme: grid costs are mostly fixed; per‑kWh pricing has historically cross‑subsidized poorer, lower‑usage customers using revenue from wealthier, high‑usage ones.
• When richer households defect to rooftop solar, remaining (poorer) customers shoulder more of the fixed costs, driving politically painful price hikes.
• Several commenters see net metering as a regressive subsidy to capital‑rich homeowners.
• Suggested fixes: separate billing for energy vs. capacity/peak demand; granular 15–30 minute pricing; higher connection fees; “storage as a service” at substations.

Battery storage: cheap or expensive?

• Strong disagreement:
  • One side: residential batteries are still very expensive in rich‑country markets (hundreds of dollars per kWh installed), making 24/7 solar+battery ROI often negative.
  • Other side: cell-level prices in China are tens of dollars per kWh, with rapid declines and new chemistries (LFP, sodium‑ion); at these levels, storage becomes “dirt cheap,” especially for developing countries importing from China.
• Several practical points: you don’t need week‑long storage in sunny climates; hours‑to‑overnight storage plus overbuilt PV is often enough.

Pakistan’s specific dynamics and “death spiral”

• Commenters describe a feedback loop: IMF‑driven removal of subsidies + dollar‑denominated contracts for fossil plants → sharp tariff hikes → rich households install rooftop solar → grid demand falls → tariffs rise further on poorer users.
• Because plant investors are guaranteed returns in dollars, they still get paid even if plants run underutilized; the state recovers costs via higher retail tariffs.
• This pattern is likened to a classic utility “death spiral,” already visible in Pakistan and feared elsewhere.

Distributed-first vs. centralized grids

• Some envision a future where rooftop/distributed solar plus storage is dominant and central generation is minority, with microgrids and local balancing.
• Grid engineers in the thread push back: existing low‑voltage distribution was built for one‑way flows; redesigning it for widespread bidirectional generation would be “astronomically expensive.”
• Others argue local storage (home or substation‑scale) can smooth flows and reduce the need for massive upgrades.

Global parallels and household economics

• Examples from South Africa, Australia, Canada, Europe illustrate wide variance in payback times, heavily shaped by retail tariffs, net‑metering rules, and subsidies.
• In high‑price or blackout‑prone regions, payback can be under 5–7 years; in others, ~10–15 years but still seen as acceptable or “insurance.”
• Poor households often want solar but lack upfront capital; financing is growing but equity concerns remain.

Control, autonomy, and politics

• Several comments frame the conflict as one of control: rooftop solar plus storage (and tools like Starlink) let communities partially exit both markets and state systems.
• Politicians fear voter backlash from rising grid prices, while entrenched energy interests resist changes that threaten existing assets.
• Some see China’s dominance in PV and batteries as a new form of energy leverage; others think advanced economies could reshore manufacturing if they perceive strategic risk.