Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

AI “Investment Thesis” & Future of Consumption

• One thread discusses an implicit “AI investment thesis”: capital can flow away from sectors serving ordinary consumers because AGI-like systems (or “robot armies”) will be the main producers and consumers (metals, chips, munitions), with human mass consumption becoming less central.
• Others push back: an economy without broad human consumers is unstable and historically produced mass poverty and unrest. Elites may try “bread and circuses” but tend to overreach, triggering revolt.
• Several note the economy’s “point” is not intrinsic; it serves whichever goals those in power choose—sometimes misaligned with ordinary people’s welfare.

Consumer Spending, Black Friday & K‑Shaped Economy

• Commenters challenge the idea that strong holiday sales disprove worker distress:
  • Nominal “record” sales are largely inflation + population, not real volume.
  • Per‑capita, inflation‑adjusted spending and item counts appear down.
  • Many people defer routine purchases to sale periods, or finance via credit cards.
• Evidence of a K‑shaped economy: top 10% of earners account for ~half of consumer spending; Walmart and similar chains report more high‑income customers trading down.
• Rising spending by affluent households can mask hardship for the majority and does not imply broad job strength.

Reality of the Job Market (Especially Tech)

• Numerous anecdotes from US, Canada, and Europe describe the worst tech job market in decades:
  • Senior devs and game developers unemployed for 1–2+ years; many move into mail delivery, retail, or trades.
  • Mid‑career engineers report 100s of applications, few interviews, and explicit rejections where they used to have near‑100% offer rates.
  • Ageism and “overqualification” (ex‑CTOs applying for IC roles) are widely cited.
• Offshoring and visa programs are blamed by some; others argue these long‑standing trends are now amplified by:
  • Post‑ZIRP cost cutting after a pandemic hiring bubble.
  • AI tools reducing demand for junior/“grunt work” coding.
• Non‑tech sectors like healthcare and construction are still hiring, but work is often physically demanding, volatile, and lower paid.

Macro Data, Policy & Perception Gaps

• Some see this as the bottom of a normal business cycle; others fear something closer to stagflation: weak job creation outside AI/data centers, persistent cost‑of‑living pressures, and booming asset prices.
• There is distrust of official US labor data (revisions, leadership turmoil) and concern that tariffs, deportations, and anti‑immigration policies are quietly worsening conditions.
• A recurring theme: “vibecession” versus statistics. Social‑media‑visible sectors (tech, creative) are suffering sharply; other sectors look “ok”, producing a confusing, uneven picture that the article’s headline touches but, in some readers’ view, downplays.