Average DRAM price in USD over last 18 months

Original Article ↗ Hacker News Discussion ↗

Scale and Timing of the DRAM Spike

  • Commenters note DDR4 and DDR5 prices have roughly 3–4×’d in just a few months, after being flat or declining for years.
  • Concrete examples: 64 GB DDR5 kits going from ~$250 → $600+, or ~€200 → ~€800 in the EU; similarly dramatic jumps for common 2×16 GB and 2×32 GB kits.
  • DDR4-3200/3600, despite being 6+ year-old tech, is now at or near all‑time highs, surprising people who expected “old” RAM to be cheap.

AI Demand and OpenAI’s DRAM Contracts

  • Many participants attribute the spike primarily to AI/LLM demand, not just a gradual shift from DDR4 to DDR5.
  • A widely discussed report: OpenAI has simultaneous contracts with Samsung and SK Hynix for up to ~40% of global DRAM output (900k wafers/month), supposedly buying wafers rather than finished modules and possibly warehousing them.
  • Debate over intent:
    • One side sees a rational attempt to secure capacity and maybe build custom accelerators/TPUs.
    • Others view it as de facto market‑cornering that starves competitors and consumers, potentially anti‑competitive even if technically legal.
  • Some argue DRAM vendors underpriced those deals because each didn’t know the other’s commitments; others say expecting them to coordinate would itself be collusion.

Supply, Fabs, and Manufacturer Strategy

  • Consensus that big DRAM makers are cautious about adding capacity: memory is notoriously cyclical, and they don’t want to be left with overcapacity if the AI bubble bursts.
  • Some reports claim future capacity ramps (e.g., around 2026), but several commenters doubt “8×” type numbers or note those are node ramps, not total output.
  • DDR4 production has already been cut back; smaller players like CXMT exiting DDR4 is cited as a missed chance to relieve pressure.

Effects on Consumers, PC Builders, and Gaming

  • Home builders, NAS hobbyists, and PC gamers report cancelled or scaled‑back upgrades; some prebuilt systems are now cheaper than DIY because they contain “old‑price” RAM.
  • There’s frustration that crypto first distorted GPU prices and AI is now doing the same to memory, making local AI and high‑end gaming more expensive.
  • Others push back that RAM is still historically cheap per GB, upgrades are infrequent, and PC gaming metrics (Steam games, users) are booming.

Apple and Relative Pricing

  • Several note that Apple’s historically steep RAM upgrade prices now look “not unreasonable” compared to current PC DIMMs.
  • Rough comparisons put Apple’s integrated memory at $12.5–25/GB, which is suddenly close to or even below top‑end PC RAM on the chart.

Inflation, Tariffs, and Macro Explanations

  • Some fold DRAM into broader complaints that official inflation stats underweight big‑ticket necessities (housing, healthcare, education) versus cheap electronics.
  • A minority blames recent US tariff policy for June price inflections, arguing tariffs and “tariff‑adjacent” opportunism ripple globally; others counter that similar price moves in Europe point more to global AI demand than trade policy.
  • There’s recurring cynicism about oligopolistic behavior in DRAM (past price‑fixing scandals are linked), though no new hard evidence is presented.

Price Gouging vs. Surge Pricing

  • Strong debate over whether retailers increasing prices on existing stock is “gouging” or just rational spot‑market behavior.
  • One camp: price hikes ration scarce RAM to those who need it most and prevent total stockouts; limiting prices would just empower scalpers.
  • The other camp: first‑come‑first‑served and rationing (limits, lotteries) would be fairer; “surge pricing” entrenches wealth and erodes trust.

Second‑Hand, Surplus, and Future Scenarios

  • People speculate about eventual floods of cheap server hardware and HBM GPUs if the AI bubble bursts, mirroring the post‑crypto GPU market—though some warn data center‑class parts may still have high operating costs or be long obsolete.
  • Used RAM is suggested as a short‑term workaround; older Xeon‑based systems and off‑lease minis remain relatively affordable.
  • Longer term, commenters expect prices to normalize once additional capacity arrives or AI demand cools, but estimates range from 1–3+ years and many expect a higher “new normal.”

Efficiency, Web Bloat, and “Using Less RAM”

  • A side thread laments that modern software and web design squander RAM with bloated JS, SPAs, and trackers; some advocate simpler, mostly‑HTML sites and light frameworks (e.g., HTMX) to keep hardware needs modest.
  • Others argue most users prefer rich, complex apps and that optimizing for ultra‑low‑end devices or 1 GB RAM is economically unrealistic outside niche use cases.

Broader Sentiment

  • Overall tone mixes technical analysis with anger and fatigue: repeated bubbles (dot‑com, crypto, now AI) are seen as privatizing upside while imposing volatility and scarcity on ordinary users.
  • Some view the DRAM crunch as another symptom of broader geopolitical and economic strain; others caution against collapse narratives and see it as a sharp but temporary shock in a cyclical industry.