Framework Raises DDR5 Memory Prices by 50% for DIY Laptops

Drivers of the DDR5 price spike

• Commenters report DDR5 kits up 200–300% since mid‑2024; some DDR4 has also tripled, including used modules.
• AI companies, especially OpenAI, are blamed for locking up a large share of global DRAM/HBM wafer capacity via multi‑year contracts, pulling supply out of the consumer and general enterprise market.
• Crucial’s exit from consumer RAM is framed as a symptom of Micron and others prioritizing hyperscalers over retail/OEM channels.

DDR4, trade policy, and supply constraints

• One line of argument: normally older DRAM fab equipment is resold to “budget” manufacturers (often China‑adjacent) to keep legacy DDR4 cheap while big players move to DDR5.
• Due to fear of US sanctions/tariffs, Korean firms allegedly are warehousing old tools instead of selling them, shrinking DDR4 capacity even as DDR5 remains tight.
• Others push back that DDR4 isn’t a true substitute for DDR5 for new systems, but concede DDR4 prices have still spiked for users trying to extend older platforms.

AI hyperscalers, legality, and antitrust

• Many see OpenAI’s behavior as an attempt to corner supply and raise rivals’ costs, likening it to classic market‑cornering schemes and calling for antitrust action or even criminal penalties.
• Counter‑arguments: large buyers reserving future capacity (like Apple with TSMC) is common; intent and actual non‑use of the memory would matter for any legal case.
• There’s disagreement over whether this already “clearly” violates monopsony/price‑discrimination laws or is just aggressive but legal procurement.

Impact on Framework, OEMs, and buyers

• Framework is seen as a downstream victim passing through costs; it has raised DDR5 prices ~50% and tightened return rules to prevent arbitrage (buy laptop + cheap RAM, return laptop).
• Industry reports cited show Dell, Lenovo, and Apple raising DRAM/NAND pricing 50%+ into 2026, with notebook shipment forecasts revised downward.
• Some individuals and companies are delaying hardware refreshes; others feel they “escaped” by buying high‑capacity RAM earlier and consider reselling or hoarding.

How long will this last?

• Several posts cite manufacturer guidance suggesting elevated prices until around 2028 due to slow capacity ramp‑up and uncertainty about an “AI bubble.”
• Others expect the usual boom‑bust “pig cycle” to eventually bring prices down via overcapacity or a demand crash, but the timing is considered highly uncertain.