My 2026 Open Social Web Predictions

Original Article ↗ Hacker News Discussion ↗

Nostr, P2P, and Truly Open Social

  • Some commenters argue the article ignores Nostr, predicting:
    • Blossom could supplant IPFS for decentralized file distribution.
    • Nostr-based apps will expand beyond text into video, docs, meetings, and calendars with shared identity/communication layers.
    • “True P2P social” where phones act as data centers, using WebRTC plus Bluetooth, LoRa, LAN, and even radio links.
  • Others see technical and cultural alignment possibilities between Nostr and projects like Reticulum-style mesh networking.
  • Fans praise Nostr’s web-of-trust moderation, spam resistance, and relay-level content scrubbing, contrasting it with more centralized moderation cultures.

Bluesky, ATProto, Fediverse, and Eurosky

  • The prediction of Bluesky reaching 60M users is challenged with references to negative or flat recent active-user trends.
  • Experiences with Bluesky are sharply split:
    • Critics call it “Twitter prom but worse,” dominated by politics and unappealing social dynamics, with little shareable content.
    • Supporters report vibrant niches (sports, law, gamedev, programming) and find it less toxic than X, with a useful “following”-only feed.
  • Mastodon/Fediverse:
    • Praised as “forums meets Twitter,” good for focused communities.
    • Debate over whether federation is a net negative for UX versus a necessary defense against centralization, legal risk, and “enshittification.”
  • Eurosky is seen as an ATProto-based European identity provider; some dislike its marketing implying ATProto = “the entire open social web” and suspect EU grant-chasing.
  • ATProto’s personal data store model and cross-app identity are praised as a strong architecture, but questions remain about independent, sustainable stacks.

User Behavior, Generations, and Social Fatigue

  • Several millennial commenters report dropping social networks due to life demands or lack of perceived value.
  • Debate over whether “social networks will die with millennials”:
    • Some cite youth polls showing “YouTuber/influencer” aspirations.
    • Others frame this as continuity with earlier desires for fame (actor/rock star), not fundamentally new.

Blogging, AI Scraping, and Ownership

  • Some predict a revival of self-hosted blogging; others say fear of AI scraping dissuades creators.
  • Arguments:
    • One side: public = fair game; AI training is akin to archiving/RSS.
    • Other side: LLMs plagiarize, strip attribution, and can amplify incorrect niche content without accountability.
    • Desire emerges for “public but not for training” norms or technical controls, though feasibility is disputed.

Developer Social Networks and Identity

  • A few expect GitHub to lose status to Codeberg/Forgejo and a federated forgeverse; drivers cited include boredom with incumbents and social signaling more than clear functional superiority.
  • Others are skeptical: GitHub’s HR visibility and friction of multi-account life keep it entrenched; 2FA and login friction are pain points.
  • ATProto-based tools like Tangled are mentioned as promising for unified identity across self-hosted development platforms, though current infrastructure is still immature.

AI as Social Media Front-End

  • Some foresee users interposing AI agents between themselves and social platforms, aggregating feeds and reducing engagement with native apps.
  • There’s disagreement over whether incumbents will fight or embrace this:
    • Likely to encourage their own AI front-ends while resisting third-party ones that bypass ads or moderation.
  • Tools like Beeper are cited as early examples of meta-clients spanning multiple networks.

Skepticism About Predictions and Metrics

  • Commenters note mismatch between optimistic projections (especially for Bluesky and open-social convergence) and available usage data.
  • A recurring critique: forecasters tend to project the future they want ideologically (open, federated, non-corporate) rather than what current adoption patterns support.