Google is dead. Where do we go now?

Original Article ↗ Hacker News Discussion ↗

A small entertainment business that long relied on Google AdWords reports its leads collapsing despite higher spending, prompting broader debate over whether Google’s search ads still deliver value for smaller advertisers. Commenters point to rising click costs, possible click fraud, and a “K‑shaped” ad economy where large brands with massive budgets outcompete local firms, even as Google’s overall ad revenue keeps growing. Many see user attention shifting toward AI assistants, short‑form video, private messaging, and niche communities, suggesting future customer acquisition will depend more on platforms like TikTok, Instagram, chatbots, and even physical or word‑of‑mouth channels than on traditional search ads.

AdWords Decline for Small Businesses

  • Central anecdote: a small local entertainment business that depended on Google Ads for a decade now sees sharply falling leads despite similar or higher spend.
  • Others with small businesses report the same: cost per click up, conversions and lead quality down, to the point where campaigns no longer break even.
  • Some suggest more prosaic explanations: new competitors, poor campaign setup, search partner issues, or click fraud (including advice on log analysis and bot detection).

Is Google or Just Google Ads “Dead”?

  • Several point out the article is really about the search ads product, not the company or search as a whole.
  • Counter-evidence is cited: steadily rising Google ad revenue and search volumes; many larger advertisers still profitably spending seven figures monthly.
  • A common reconciliation: the “K‑shaped” ad economy—big, sophisticated or high-margin advertisers still do well; smaller, unsophisticated ones get priced out.

Shifts in Discovery: AI, Social, and Private Channels

  • Multiple commenters say they and their peers now use LLMs (ChatGPT, Gemini, etc.) for a large share of “search-like” tasks, especially comparisons and product research.
  • Others see most practical discovery moving to TikTok, Instagram, YouTube, or private groups (WhatsApp, Discord, iMessage), with traditional web search used less.
  • This weakens both SEO and PPC as predictable acquisition tools, especially for local or niche services.

Future of Ads in an AI World

  • Strong expectation that AI assistants will become the next ad surface: sponsored products blended into recommendations, pay-to-be-in-the-training-corpus, or prompt-targeted placements.
  • Some are optimistic this could be resisted (self-hosted models, ad blockers, regulation); most expect enshittification similar to search and social.

Impact on the Open Web and Search Ecosystem

  • Debate over what “killed” the open web: social media dominance, Google’s ad-driven design, or now AI summaries that reduce clicks and weaken publisher incentives.
  • Alternative search engines like Kagi are discussed: admired, but questioned on whether they can sustain their own index if the open web continues to shrink or wall itself off.

Alternative Marketing Approaches

  • Suggested channels: Meta (Facebook/Instagram) ads, YouTube pre-roll, Reddit (with caveats), local SEO/Maps, physical flyers and QR codes, direct relationships with planners and influencers, content and FAQ pages optimized for LLMs.
  • Some argue that in saturated, automated ad markets, many small businesses must fall back to word-of-mouth, repeat customers, and highly local tactics rather than mass platforms.