America's economy looks set to accelerate
Monetary vs. Fiscal Policy
- Several commenters push back on the idea that “loosening” is permanent, noting a recent period of higher rates and Fed balance-sheet reduction.
- Others stress the distinction: monetary policy has tightened and is now easing, while fiscal policy in rich countries has mostly been loose for years.
- Some dismiss the jargon as obfuscating that governments just keep spending and cutting rates whenever possible.
Taxes, Spending, and Growth
- Debate centers on whether high taxes “grow” the economy.
- One side argues growth comes when tax revenue funds productive infrastructure and public R&D, citing long-run gains from such investments.
- Skeptics counter that modern infrastructure often turns into bloated welfare-like programs where the actual projects don’t get built.
- Multiple commenters highlight that high taxes don’t automatically mean high growth; what matters is how money is spent, and empirical country comparisons are contested and left largely unresolved.
Inflation, Dollar Devaluation, and Debt
- Many expect looser policy and tax cuts to boost growth in the short term but raise inflation and deepen inequality.
- Several argue that deliberate dollar devaluation is effectively part of the strategy: it erodes real debt burdens and can help exports while hurting importers and consumers.
- Others worry this means higher rents and food prices and question who will bear the costs.
Hedging Against a Weakening Dollar
- Suggested hedges range from TIPS, stocks, real estate, and foreign index funds to gold and even “beans and bullets.”
- Some argue that in a true USD collapse there is “no place to hide” given global interconnectedness; others stress there are many scenarios short of apocalypse where non-dollar assets or gold could still help.
- Practical issues with gold (spreads, liquidity, need for provenance) are raised.
Reindustrialization and Policy Credibility
- The administration’s stated goal of reindustrializing the US is debated.
- Supporters point to recent bills aimed at manufacturing incentives and tax changes, and caution against assuming these efforts must fail.
- Critics see these measures as too small, incoherent, or overshadowed by tariff chaos, labor constraints, and political unreliability; some frame the project as primarily an enrichment scheme for elites.
Inequality, “Acceleration,” and Data Quality
- Several note that even if GDP accelerates, benefits may accrue mainly to the wealthy via tax cuts and asset-price gains.
- Concerns include deteriorating affordability of housing and health care, unsustainable deficits, and the risk that “a good economy” in aggregate masks worsening conditions for median workers.
- Some distrust official US economic data after recent political interference and shutdowns, questioning the reliability of any upbeat forecasts.
- Overall sentiment: short-term acceleration in 2026 is plausible under heavy stimulus, but with mounting structural, distributional, and political risks.