China DRAM Maker CXMT Targets $4.2B IPO as It Takes on Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron

Original Article ↗ Hacker News Discussion ↗

Technical capabilities & lithography

  • Initial confusion over whether DRAM makers use ASML is corrected: major DRAM vendors, including CXMT, rely on ASML lithography.
  • DRAM processes lag logic nodes and most volume is still on DUV; EUV is only now ramping (e.g., “1-gamma” class processes).
  • CXMT is seen as behind in EUV adoption but possibly competitive using DUV if yields and power are acceptable.
  • Micron’s EUV production is tied mainly to fabs in Japan/Taiwan; US fabs are still years away.

Market structure, prices, and AI-driven demand

  • The current DRAM market is described as a tight oligopoly (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron) focused on “profit maximization” rather than market-share wars.
  • Commenters link today’s high DRAM prices to deliberate supply discipline and the AI boom, calling it akin to a speculative bubble or “toilet-paper” style panic.
  • Some argue this is exactly when a new entrant should expand: “your margin is my opportunity.”
  • Others note CXMT’s current capacity is too small to meaningfully lower global prices yet.

State backing, IP, and geopolitics

  • CXMT is portrayed as heavily state-backed, with tens of billions in subsidies, raising the question whether Korean champions and their governments can match that.
  • Historical parallels: South Korea and Silicon Valley also benefited from state/defense support.
  • Allegations of Samsung DRAM process IP being leaked to CXMT via an ex-engineer and handwritten notes are cited as a key accelerator of CXMT’s progress.
  • Some see IP leakage as inevitable; others say IP is effectively dead when competing with China.

Effects on consumers and global supply

  • Many hope CXMT will relieve DRAM prices for PC builders and hobbyists; others note that CXMT-based DDR5 on Taobao is currently only marginally cheaper than Hynix, likely reflecting limited capacity and rational pricing.
  • Even if CXMT sells mostly inside China due to sanctions, replacing imported DRAM there could free up supply elsewhere and indirectly ease prices.
  • Discussion of Chinese mini PCs and integrated DRAM suggests a potential shift: if DIMM prices stay high while integrated memory systems remain cheap, it could structurally change segments of the PC market.

Regulation, sanctions, and security concerns

  • Some call for government intervention or rationing to stop hyperscalers from hoarding memory; others see that as premature and unworkable.
  • CXMT is already under US sanctions; many expect its products to be largely absent from Western “critical” applications.
  • There is concern both about current illegal price-fixing and about future dependence on a Chinese-dominated DRAM supply.

Investment and smaller players

  • Interest in buying CXMT’s Shanghai STAR IPO is high, but foreign access is constrained by Stock Connect rules; exposure may require Chinese-focused HK funds.
  • A long tail of niche DRAM makers exists, but commenters stress that the top three still control ~95% of the market; CXMT and a few others are the main “up-and-coming” names.
  • Some users express a separate desire for vendors (new or old) to offer ECC and rowhammer-resistant RAM, even at a premium.