There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

Original Article ↗ Hacker News Discussion ↗

BGP anomalies and what they might mean

  • Several commenters note BGP’s inherent fragility: route leaks, fat‑fingered configs, and path prepending can cause large, unintended shifts, even “by accident.”
  • Multiple network engineers argue the observed Venezuelan anomalies look like a common misconfiguration or route leak, not a deliberate hijack:
    • CANTV is a legitimate upstream for Dayco.
    • Excessive AS‑path prepending is something CANTV “just does” to de‑prioritize its links.
    • When better routes vanish (e.g., GlobeNet/TIM issues), long, odd-looking paths can suddenly surface.
  • Others think the timing and affected prefixes (banks, ISPs) are suspicious and potentially useful for pre‑operation intelligence gathering, even if the article rightly avoids hard conclusions.
  • Several stress that BGP anomalies are routine, so correlation with the blackout may be coincidental.

Cyberwarfare and power/infrastructure attacks

  • Commenters discuss the broader context: modern militaries plan to disable enemy grids and air defenses via cyber and electronic means, alongside kinetic options.
  • Some accept US claims of CYBERCOM involvement in the Venezuela operation; others distrust specific political statements as unreliable “game of telephone,” even if cyber activity is assumed.
  • There’s debate over how “horrific” cyber shutdowns are compared to bombings, but others note sustained blackouts themselves can be deadly (heat/cold, hospitals, traffic, fires).

International law, sovereignty, and regime change

  • Strong disagreement over whether forcibly removing a leader in another country can be justified:
    • One side frames it like “arresting a criminal,” given views of Maduro as a tyrant.
    • Others argue Venezuela’s sovereignty and warn of dangerous precedents and civilian fallout.
  • International law is portrayed by some as weak and voluntary; others counter that while enforcement is limited, it still matters.
  • Many see global reactions (UN speeches, European statements) as largely symbolic “strongly worded letters” without real consequences.

Nuclear deterrence and proliferation

  • Major subthread: would nuclear weapons have prevented this kind of “snatch” operation?
    • Some assert nuclear capability deters decapitation strikes and explains why certain regimes survive.
    • Others argue deterrence only works if leaders are genuinely willing to use nukes; few would trigger national annihilation over a kidnapped or ousted leader.
  • Ukraine, North Korea, Pakistan, and Iran are discussed as case studies:
    • Many think Ukraine’s disarmament was a mistake in hindsight.
    • Several predict this episode will further encourage small states to seek nukes, though others warn that more nuclear actors make miscalculation and limited nuclear use more likely.

Technology dependence and control

  • Some infer that relying on US‑linked infrastructure (or any great power’s tech) exposes countries to this kind of manipulation; others note Venezuela likely already uses non‑US vendors, so the problem is broader than “American tech.”
  • There’s a side discussion that most of the world is de facto reliant on US platforms anyway (Android/iOS, WhatsApp, etc.), giving alternative vectors beyond routers and cables.

DNS, HTTPS records, and ECH

  • A substantial digression explains that a growing share of DNS queries are for HTTPS record types, used for HTTP/3 and Encrypted Client Hello (ECH).
  • ECH + encrypted DNS can hide the requested hostname from passive observers and censors, especially on shared CDNs, making fine‑grained site blocking harder.
  • Some see this as a major privacy win; others note censoring states can still respond with coarse blocking or legal pressure on infrastructure providers.

Monitoring, OSINT, and meta‑discussion

  • Commenters praise the OSINT methodology and suggest systematically monitoring BGP anomalies as a weak predictor of geopolitical events, while others note anomalies “happen every day.”
  • A few discuss how such signals might even be tied to prediction markets.
  • There are meta‑threads about HN moderation, downvotes on political content, and suspicions of astroturfing, but no consensus on their significance.