US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

How bad is the labor market?

• Several commenters argue the US is already in recession or even a long depression since 2008, citing collapsing heavy truck sales, logistics weakness, and state‑ or class‑specific downturns.
• Others push back: unemployment is still low, payrolls are growing, GDP growth is positive, and job openings remain ~30% above longer‑run averages (per FRED).
• Some highlight conflicting indicators: personal savings rates and labor‑force participation suggest weakness; job openings are falling but still high; quits and layoffs are largely flat.
• There’s concern that headline aggregates mask distribution: some groups/regions are in expansion while others face depression‑like conditions and poor job quality.

Is AI driving the decline in openings?

• One view: we’re in a “stealth recession” with AI as the narrative cover for classic recession behavior—hiring freezes, wage stagnation, layoffs, and capex cuts rebranded as “AI productivity.”
• Others say current AI adoption is too early and shallow to materially move macro employment; it’s more hype, FOMO, and investor signaling than real displacement so far.
• Counterexamples: some firms explicitly bake AI into 2026 plans; at least one government contractor lost a rebid to a much smaller, AI‑enabled team.
• Many expect AI to be structurally deflationary and ultimately job‑reducing, but argue the present downturn is mostly driven by interest rates, prior over‑hiring, and general uncertainty.

Ghost postings and data quality

• Multiple participants note “ghost jobs” and resume‑harvesting postings, which weaken the signal from job‑opening counts and online indices.
• JOLTS’ low survey response rate and large revisions are criticized; Indeed’s data sometimes shows different trends.
• Others respond that unemployment and payroll data don’t show a hidden collapse, suggesting openings are still mostly real.

Policy uncertainty, tariffs, and executive power

• A major theme is that unpredictable tariffs, emergency‑power economics, and shifting executive orders make long‑horizon hiring and investment (e.g., logistics contracts, capital projects) far riskier.
• Some describe firms “America‑proofing” by diversifying supply chains and capex away from the US.
• There’s deep concern about institutional drift: courts expanding presidential power, changes in how economic stats are produced/released, and the loss of the US’s reputation for stability.

Offshoring, immigration, and protectionism

• Many report active offshoring of technical and manufacturing roles and long‑term hiring freezes in the US, often driven by private equity or cost‑cutting mandates.
• Debate over H‑1B: some see mass layoffs alongside large visa approvals as evidence of abuse; others note the hard numerical caps and argue H‑1Bs are a tiny share of the labor force and often more expensive per worker.
• Proposals surface for offshoring taxes and tariffs tied to labor and environmental standards; critics warn these costs fall on consumers and hurt innovation.
• There’s frustration that the US protects corporate profits more than domestic jobs, especially versus more protectionist countries.

Wealth concentration and taxation

• Several comments tie weak job prospects to extreme wealth concentration and shareholder capitalism: buybacks, tax arbitrage, and low effective tax rates for the top 0.1%.
• Others point out that total federal receipts as a share of GDP are similar to the 1950s, arguing that very high statutory rates didn’t actually produce vastly higher revenue.
• There’s a split between those who see higher taxes and redistribution as essential and those who emphasize incentives, the Laffer‑curve logic, and the role of how taxes are structured and spent.

Broader systemic and societal anxieties

• Some argue the current trajectory—concentrated wealth, weakened competition, and political radicalization—is an expected outcome of capitalism without robust antitrust and welfare “guardrails.”
• Fears include erosion of trust, declining education, brain drain of skilled immigrants, militarization, and the possibility of large‑scale social unrest if basic needs can’t be met.
• Others see talk of imminent collapse or civil war as exaggerated but agree that uncertainty and institutional damage are already depressing hiring and investment.