The $14 Burrito: Why San Francisco Inflation Feels Higher Than 2.5%

Comparing SF to Other Cities’ Food Costs

• Many describe SF as “next level” expensive, with $20+ sandwiches and $14+ burritos, often pricier than LA, NYC, DC, Seattle, and even other parts of the Bay.
• LA is repeatedly praised for better, cheaper, and more varied food, with a still‑existent “low end” (small taquerias, random strip‑mall gems) that SF lacks.
• Seattle and SF are both criticized as expensive with declining quality and variety; Portland is often cited as cheaper and better for food.
• Some note that $14 burritos are now common even in lower‑cost metros (Raleigh, Minneapolis, Sacramento, Philly).

Perceived vs Official Inflation

• Several posters say their personal “basket of goods” (groceries, snacks, simple meals) has risen 40–100% since ~2018, conflicting with official CPI.
• There is strong skepticism toward government inflation metrics: complaints about unrepresentative baskets, politically driven adjustments, and dubious “quality” adjustments.
• Some track specific items (cup noodles, beef, eggs) and see large multipliers over a decade.

Labor, Minimum Wage, and Prices

• One camp blames higher minimum wages and “living wage” laws for restaurant price hikes and potential job losses.
• Others counter with references to research and back‑of‑the‑envelope math: labor is only part of costs, so even large wage hikes should cause relatively small price increases; they see minimum wage as mainly redistributive, not inflationary.
• Disagreement persists over whether higher labor costs inevitably get passed fully to consumers and how much unemployment results.

Housing, Income, and the SF Price Ratchet

• A common view: SF’s limited real estate drives up housing costs → drives up wages → drives up local services prices, in a self‑reinforcing “ratchet.”
• Some note SF is still under pre‑COVID activity levels, but high‑income tech workers and “K‑shaped” spending keep prices elevated.

Fees, Tipping, and “Drip Pricing”

• Many emphasize that sticker prices understate reality: sales tax, 18–20% default tips, “SF mandate”/surcharge fees, and card fees all push a $15 lunch toward $20.
• Some resent that anti–“hidden fee” rules exempt restaurants, and that tipping has spread to takeout and fast‑casual contexts.

Restaurant Industry Shifts & Behavior Changes

• Posters describe “enshittification”: higher prices, lower quality, worse service, fewer late‑night/cheap options.
• Several higher‑income workers report largely giving up casual dining and fast food in SF/Bay (and other cities) because prices doubled while their wages did not.
• Conferences and events (e.g., GDC) are cited as extreme examples: $20 crêpes, $10 sodas justified because expenses are usually corporate.

Input Costs, Trade Shocks, and Tariffs

• Beyond wages, some point to large jumps in specific inputs (onions from $9 to $80 a sack, beef up $2+/lb).
• Others highlight COVID disruptions and broader “trade shocks” (including tariffs and reduced cheap imports) as major drivers of higher food prices.