Do not mistake a resilient global economy for populist success

Role of the state vs markets in AI and industry

• Debate over whether the AI boom is mainly a private‑sector story or heavily dependent on defense spending, university STEM funding, and earlier state-backed R&D (solar, space, EUV).
• Several argue for a “yin and yang” of public and private investment that ideological camps ignore.
• Others note the US has tariffs but no coherent industrial plan (infrastructure, training, labor costs).

Tariffs, protectionism, and execution problems

• The article’s chart on trade/automation is criticized as inconclusive, especially given time lags in relocating production.
• Some support targeted import limits (e.g. Shein surcharges) in increasingly materialistic societies; others say “data not in yet” does not imply protectionism is necessary.
• Rare earths are used as a case study: the US has resources but struggles to complete long-cycle projects (mines, separation, magnets) despite years of political noise; this is framed as an institutional/capitalism problem, not a resource one.

GDP, growth, and what “economic health” means

• Long thread arguing GDP and GDP per capita are crude: they miscount illegal or harmful activity as positive, ignore unpaid work, externalities, distribution, and “usefulness” of spending.
• Books and quotes (e.g., Kennedy, “Mismeasuring our lives”) are cited to argue for broader measures: household perspective, wealth distribution, non-market activity, time-to-afford basics.
• Others defend GDP as a practical, directionally useful proxy that correlates with many quality-of-life indicators, especially at low income levels, while conceding it’s dangerous to optimize on a single number.

Housing, wealth distribution, and generations

• Dispute over whether Millennials/younger cohorts are poorer than parents: some cite wealth data showing they’re ahead at comparable ages; others argue means hide inequality and housing affordability is the real constraint.
• Housing bubbles are debated: some say past bubbles burst (2008), others see ongoing propping-up via policy, making eventual adjustment worse.
• Pension burdens and aging demographics are seen as looming shocks, especially in Europe.

Markets, stocks, and currency risk

• Discussion of households’ 401(k) exposure: stock gains may not offset rising living costs, so incumbents may not get political credit.
• Non-US investors highlight how S&P500 returns look much weaker once currency moves are included; this sparks back-and-forth over whether it’s “just a unit change” or a real loss when you must pay bills in your home currency.
• Currency hedged ETFs are mentioned but higher fees and long-run mean reversion make them controversial.

Populism, technocrats, and voter disillusionment

• Populism framed as the public reacting to “broken deals” by elites/technocrats, especially in US/EU.
• UK examples (Brexit/Reform, minor benefit cuts) illustrate perceived managed decline: taxes and debt up, services down, little bold reform, making voters receptive to “bullshit change.”
• Others stress voters themselves demand incompatible things (high services, low taxes), and populist governments often worsen fiscal problems by expanding benefits.

Resilience vs renewal

• Several caution against celebrating “resilience” (no recession, modest growth) that merely postpones pain.
• Protectionism and constant monetary easing may stabilize in the short term but slow productivity, adaptability, and deeper renewal.
• Some argue adaptability—fast reallocation of people and capital—is more important than headline growth, which can mask fragility.