Iran has now been offline for 96 hours

Original Article ↗ Hacker News Discussion ↗

Overall Mood

  • Many commenters describe the situation as “depressing” but express strong hope the outcome will improve life for ordinary Iranians.
  • There is simultaneous excitement and discomfort about the idea of a future “content drop” of videos once connectivity is restored, with some calling that reaction morally troubling.

Will the Regime Fall?

  • Some argue this looks like the beginning of the end: unprecedented anger, direct attacks on regime symbols, and people seemingly “past the point of no return.”
  • Others think collapse is unlikely: the regime retains an ideological base, heavy weaponry, and security structures designed to crush revolts; previous large protests (e.g. Mahsa Amini, 2009) ultimately failed.
  • A key concern is the lack of a clear, organized opposition or successor, raising fears of civil war, chaos, or something worse than the current system.
  • One commenter cites a classic “five conditions for revolution” and claims all are present; others question whether that actually implies success.

Scale of Protests and Casualties

  • Reported protester deaths range from “hundreds” to several thousand; some informal estimates mention up to ~6,000, but all are acknowledged as unverified.
  • Internet blackout and censorship make independent verification “extremely difficult”; participants warn that all sides push propaganda.

Domestic Support and Public Opinion

  • Several note that many Iranians dislike the regime but also oppose US/Israeli-led regime change, fearing a repeat of Iraq/Afghanistan.
  • Informal estimates from diaspora networks suggest a majority want change without foreign intervention; a minority support overt external help; a smaller minority are ardent regime loyalists.
  • Demographic split is suggested: older conservatives vs younger, more moderate/Westernized youth.

Foreign Powers, Mossad, and Narratives

  • Some argue the protests are heavily backed or amplified by US/Israel, citing public statements from foreign intelligence and long histories of intervention.
  • Others insist the movement is fundamentally homegrown, driven by inflation, unemployment, water and power crises, and anger at corruption and repression; foreign agencies may be “one factor” but not the cause.
  • There is heated dispute over whether Western governments want democracy, mere stability, or controllable client regimes; no consensus emerges.
  • Debate extends into regional geopolitics: Israel–Iran shadow war, nuclear deterrence, proxy networks, and whether recent Israeli actions weakened or unintentionally strengthened Iran’s regime.

Economic and Material Triggers

  • Commenters emphasize economic collapse: currency in free fall, people allegedly unable to afford food, and severe water shortages.
  • Some argue these material pressures, combined with belief that change is possible, are what pushed people into open revolt despite lethal risk.

Starlink, Jamming, and Internet Control

  • Several discuss Starlink as a potential lifeline; others report it is being actively jammed.
  • Technical explanations:
    • Unlike GPS (receive-only), Starlink is bidirectional, so uplink to satellites can be overwhelmed by strong local jammers.
    • Jamming may target Starlink frequencies or GPS signals that dishes need for positioning; there are reports of GPS disruption around major cities.
    • In principle, jammers have an advantage: it’s often easier to broadcast noise over a wide band than to maintain robust communication in hostile conditions.
  • Practical suggestions from those in contact with people inside Iran: use Starlink terminals briefly, move frequently, never leave them powered where they are stored, and expect raids targeting suspected dishes.

Media Coverage and Information Reliability

  • Some sense a “coordinated” increase in Western attention, others say coverage is still limited compared to other conflicts.
  • There is repeated caution against over-interpreting social media clips, given state blackouts, foreign intelligence activity, and narrative-driven reporting.

External Tools and Solidarity

  • Mesh and offline-first messaging tools (e.g., apps used in Gaza) are mentioned; one commenter warns that projects associated with strongly pro-Iran-regime or pro-proxy circles may not be trusted in a life-or-death context.
  • Overall, many express solidarity with Iranians while being pessimistic about both foreign intervention and a clean, democratic transition.