Ford F-150 Lightning outsold the Cybertruck and was then canceled for poor sales

Original Article ↗ Hacker News Discussion ↗

Lightning vs Cybertruck: Sales, Scale, and Expectations

  • Commenters agree Lightning outsold Cybertruck, but many say that doesn’t equal success:
    • If you build for hundreds of thousands of units and sell tens of thousands, it’s a failure regardless of beating Cybertruck.
    • Several argue Cybertruck is effectively a low-volume “halo” or sports-car‑like vanity project, while Ford tried to make Lightning a mainstream work truck.
  • Tesla’s much higher valuation means it can tolerate a flop better; Ford investors focus on margins and cash flow.
  • Some claim Cybertruck has achieved positive gross margins while Lightning never did; others doubt Tesla’s accounting given large unsold inventory.

Why Lightning Was Canceled

  • Repeated theme: Lightning was simply too expensive to build for its price:
    • Huge, heavy battery; one-off architecture not leveraged across multiple models; tariffs killing cheaper imported components.
    • Battery pack alone cited as ~$17k; Ford never reached economies of scale.
  • Dealers worsened the situation with big markups early on, turning away would‑be buyers and poisoning the model’s reputation.
  • Another factor mentioned: constrained aluminum supply needed for more profitable F‑150 variants.
  • Many note Ford is pivoting to an extended‑range EV (EREV) F‑150 that uses a smaller battery plus an onboard generator, seen as more practical for long towing.

EV Trucks: Towing, Range, and Real Use

  • Strong consensus that today’s full‑size EV pickups are bad at long‑distance towing:
    • Examples: towing heavy trailers can cut range below 100 miles and require frequent, long fast‑charge stops.
  • Split opinions on how much that matters:
    • Some say most truck owners hardly ever tow or haul and mainly commute or do short‑range errands; for them EV trucks are fine or ideal.
    • Others insist “real” truck buyers care about long‑distance towing and will avoid EVs until that’s solved.
  • Lightning is praised for:
    • Onboard 120/240V power (replacing generators, powering sites/homes).
    • Smooth, powerful driving and capability for short‑range work.
  • Cybertruck is widely described as “a bad truck” even by truck users: awkward bed, high weight, poor off‑road/towing performance relative to expectations.

Emissions, Carbon, and Energy Mix

  • Debate over whether big EV trucks are genuinely greener:
    • Some argue BEV vs ICE manufacturing adds ~4 tons CO₂, quickly offset if electricity is renewable.
    • Others say trucks like Cybertruck require so much carbon‑intensive manufacturing that they’ll never drive enough tow‑miles to break even.
  • Proposals surface for taxing fossil fuels at the true cost of carbon sequestration; frustration that this would “kill the modern economy.”
  • Several note coal‑ and gas‑fired generation and diesel backup for data centers complicate the EV climate story.

Design, Status, and the Truck Market

  • Cybertruck design is polarizing:
    • Many call it ugly, dystopian, unsafe, or a “Homer car”; a few genuinely love the bold, low‑poly look.
    • The promise of a tough stainless “exoskeleton” is mocked given panels and trim reportedly falling off and multiple recalls.
  • Lightning design criticized for:
    • Huge, visibility‑blocking frunk and overall length that doesn’t add bed utility.
    • But others like that it looks like a normal F‑150 and shares aftermarket support.
  • Long subthread on “lifestyle trucks”:
    • Modern US pickups are seen as expensive, oversized, short‑bed luxobarges that signal wealth and ruggedness more than they do work.
    • Basic, utilitarian small trucks (90s mini‑trucks, Kei trucks, hypothetical Slate/Telo‑type EVs) are repeatedly held up as what many actually want.
    • Counterpoint: many tradespeople do use full‑size trucks as mobile offices and appreciate comfort and high‑end trims.

Politics, Media, and Brand Perception

  • Many think Cybertruck’s launch coincided badly with Musk’s increasingly polarizing politics:
    • Pro‑EV left‑leaning buyers cooled on Tesla; Cybertruck is visually and culturally tied to Musk, making it feel like a political statement.
  • Others insist the main problem is price, range, quality, and missed promises (price nearly doubled vs unveiling, range roughly halved).
  • Discussion of Electrek:
    • Some see its coverage as clearly hostile to Tesla after changes to referral programs; others say negative reporting simply reflects events.
  • Several Tesla owners say they now feel compelled to signal they bought “before Elon went off the deep end,” or regret funding him.

Dealers, Legacy Automakers, and EV Economics

  • Strong suspicion that dealer incentives harmed Lightning and other legacy EVs:
    • Dealers rely on service revenue; EVs need less maintenance.
    • Reports of upsells, markups, or steering buyers back to ICE models.
    • Ford’s attempts at direct or hub‑based EV sales reportedly scrapped under dealer pushback and state franchise laws.
  • Broader strategic debate:
    • Some argue Toyota’s hybrid‑first, EV‑cautious strategy is being vindicated, especially with strong hybrid sales and bungled EV programs elsewhere.
    • Others note Toyota’s heavy bet on hydrogen as a parallel misallocation.

EV Misconceptions vs Genuine Constraints

  • One camp says misconceptions dominate:
    • Most people drive under ~40–60 miles per day and can charge at home, even from a 120V outlet.
    • Road‑trip penalties (extra 30–60 minutes over many hours) are framed as acceptable tradeoffs, sometimes even healthier due to forced breaks.
  • The other camp stresses real limitations:
    • Apartment and dense‑housing residents often lack any overnight charging.
    • Rural fast‑charging gaps, cold weather, and heavy use (towing, long‑range work, 600–700 km Autobahn days) are still poorly served.
    • Public charging experience is fragmented (multiple apps, broken stations, mismatched connectors, pricing), especially outside Tesla’s network.
  • Heavy depreciation of many EVs worries buyers; others frame it as a bargain for used‑EV shoppers who understand battery lifetimes.

What Buyers Seem to Want Next

  • Across the thread there’s converging interest in:
    • Smaller, cheaper, simpler electric pickups (Maverick‑class, slate‑style mini‑trucks) rather than massive luxury EV trucks.
    • Extended‑range EVs or strong plug‑in hybrids with ~80–150 miles electric plus a generator for rare long trips and towing.
  • Many see Ford’s future EREV F‑150 and similar concepts as more realistic bridges than pure BEV pickups, at least until batteries and infrastructure improve.