Earth is warming faster. Scientists are closing in on why (2024)

Access to Climate Data

• Some want to inspect “raw data” behind recent warming trends.
• Others note most climate datasets (e.g., sea-surface temperatures from NOAA, University of Maine visualizations) are already public and extensive.
• There’s a tension between transparency and expertise: several argue that without training in climate data processing, raw data won’t be very enlightening, and people should rely on peer‑reviewed work instead.

HN Meta: Deletion, Moderation, and “Denial”

• Debate over disappearing comments: clarification that HN allows brief post‑submission deletions (“oops window”), and account nukes for severe violations.
• Some perceive an uptick in heated new accounts and “dead” comments; others dismiss conspiracy ideas about HN being “controlled by enemies.”
• One view: much of what’s called “denial” is actually despair about lack of realistic large‑scale solutions.

Aerosols, Shipping Rules, and Geoengineering

• Commenters note that aerosols’ cooling effect has been known for years; recent shipping fuel regulations (IMO 2020) reducing sulfur emissions are seen as a likely contributor to recent acceleration in warming.
• One camp takes this as evidence that stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) or similar geoengineering could slow warming and provide a “bridge.”
• Critics emphasize unknown second‑order effects, irreversibility of some impacts, and “termination shock” if aerosol programs stop while CO₂ remains high—potentially compressing decades of warming into a few years.
• A climate scientist explains hysteresis, volcanic analogs, different response timescales (marine cloud brightening vs. SAI), and argues risks are substantial even if outright “end of all life” claims are exaggerated.
• Others stress aerosols do nothing for ocean acidification and only mask, not solve, the underlying CO₂ problem.

CO₂ Removal vs. Novel Interventions

• Many commenters are more comfortable with CO₂ reduction and removal (DAC, reforestation, ecosystem restoration) than with new atmospheric manipulations.
• Technical obstacles highlighted: enormous annual emissions (tens of gigatonnes), diffuse atmospheric CO₂, and huge energy requirements.
• Some see “undoing” damage (restoration, sequestration) as categorically safer than adding new forcings.

Responsibility and Politics

• Disagreement over focusing blame on China/India’s coal buildout.
• Counterarguments stress per‑capita and historical emissions, with the view that rich countries, especially the US, have the greatest obligation to go carbon‑negative and support poorer nations.
• Frustration is expressed at US consumption patterns and lack of serious decarbonization policies.

Risk Perception and Communication

• Reference to Bill Gates: he still considers climate a major threat but not guaranteed human extinction; some note how his nuanced stance gets selectively misused by skeptics.
• Several argue that extreme “end of humanity” rhetoric has fueled backlash, yet current impacts (wildfires, poor snow seasons) already make denial untenable.
• A recurring theme is how much policy should be guided primarily by scientific consensus vs. broader political and economic considerations.

Culture and Education

• Neal Stephenson’s “Termination Shock” is cited as a popularization of SAI and its geopolitical risks.
• A cooperative board game (“Daybreak”) is recommended as a way to build intuition about global climate action trade‑offs, though some anticipate critiques of its modeling assumptions.