Prediction: Microsoft will eventually ship a Windows-themed Linux distro

Enterprise lock-in and endpoint management

• Several comments argue Microsoft’s real moat is Active Directory + Group Policy. They provide tightly integrated identity, policy, and endpoint control that Linux stacks (FreeIPA, Ansible, etc.) only approximate with more engineering effort.
• Some sysadmins say nothing in Linux forbids an AD-equivalent, but fragmentation of config mechanisms and multiple distros makes a “one true” central policy system hard.
• Others counter that as more apps move to SaaS and MDM/SSO, clients may need less deep OS-level management, which weakens Windows’ advantage over time.
• Hardware security and anti-theft features exposed by Windows tooling (TPM, parts pairing, compliance frameworks) are cited as another reason enterprises stick with Windows.

NT kernel vs Windows userland

• There is broad agreement that most of Windows’ technical problems are in userland/UX (ads, telemetry, Copilot, Settings/Control Panel mess), not the NT kernel.
• Multiple participants praise NT’s kernel, driver model, stable ABI (Win32), async I/O, and debugging tools; some claim it’s “objectively better” in areas than Linux.
• Others dispute this, pointing to historical BSODs, driver pain, DPI scaling issues, and monolithic design; but even critics usually concede the kernel isn’t the main problem.

Likelihood and economics of a Microsoft Linux desktop

• Skeptics emphasize that Azure, M365, Exchange, Dynamics, and a huge .NET/Win32 legacy all depend on Windows Server/NT; porting them wholesale to Linux would cost vast effort with little revenue upside while current stack is highly profitable.
• Some note Microsoft already ships Azure Linux and relies heavily on Linux for customer workloads, but argue this coexists with, rather than replaces, NT (e.g., Azure Host OS).
• Proponents of the prediction lean on shrinking Windows revenue share, rising service revenues, and the earlier example of Edge abandoning its engine for Blink as evidence Microsoft could someday view NT as unnecessary cost.
• Many call the article’s logic weak: swapping the kernel wouldn’t fix the UX “enshittification,” and the joint probability of Windows worsening, Linux greatly improving, and Microsoft choosing a Linux kernel all at once is seen as low.

Gaming, users, and “year of Linux desktop”

• Some believe gaming on Linux (SteamDeck, Proton) plus hostility to Windows 11’s AI/ads will gradually push enthusiasts, then businesses, toward Linux.
• Others point out anti-cheat and studio indifference keep key titles Windows-only, and note that “year of the Linux desktop” predictions have repeatedly failed.
• Overall sentiment: Windows will likely keep degrading UX while remaining entrenched in enterprise for a long time; a full “Windows-themed Linux” replacing NT is viewed as possible but unlikely.