The '3.5% rule': How a small minority can change the world (2019)

Limits and Counterexamples

• Multiple commenters say the “3.5% rule” clearly fails under many modern regimes: cited examples include Iran, Hong Kong, Belarus, and recent protests in Israel and Georgia.
• Even where turnout plausibly exceeded 3.5%, regimes survived by shooting protesters, mass arrests, torture, or tightening control over elections and media.
• Historical counterexamples are noted too (e.g., entrenched segregation in parts of the US despite large, organized resistance).

When and Why 3.5% Can Work

• Several people stress the threshold is descriptive, not a magic law; Chenoweth herself later clarified it’s a historical pattern, not a guarantee.
• The key mechanism discussed is not crowd size alone but elite defection: mass, organized nonviolent mobilization can convince parts of the ruling coalition the incumbent is too risky to back.
• 3.5% is framed as a rough indicator that the movement likely reflects much broader passive support, not that 3.5% can override a mobilized majority.

Violence, Nonviolence, and State Repression

• Nonviolent campaigns historically succeed more often than violent ones in the dataset, but commenters note success rates are far from certain and appear to be declining as states adapt.
• Some argue nonviolence works partly because there is a credible violent alternative in the background (e.g., Black Panthers vs. MLK), or because state overreaction can backfire.
• Others counter that violence by dissidents usually hardens the regime and discourages elite defection.

Democracy, Minorities, and Legitimacy

• One line of debate: is 3.5% “anti-democratic”? Critics say a small minority imposing change on the majority violates democratic norms.
• Others respond with the “tyranny of the majority” problem and note that small, oppressed groups often have no path except protest; mobilized minorities usually speak for a much larger silent bloc.

Organization, Funding, and “Paid Protesters”

• There’s extensive argument over whether large protests (e.g., recent US “No Kings” events) are organic or effectively manufactured via funding.
• Some emphasize foundation money and professional organizing; others, including self-described participants, insist most attendees are unpaid “normal people.”
• The “paid protesters” trope is recognized as a long-standing way for authorities and partisans to delegitimize opposition, used across countries and ideologies.

Evolving Effectiveness of Protest

• Several comments claim governments learned from events like Occupy and the Arab Spring how to absorb, outwait, or discredit mass movements without visible massacres.
• Social-media-enabled protests mobilize quickly but often lack durable organizations or leadership capable of negotiating structural change.
• Suggested readings (e.g., If We Burn, Twitter and Teargas) are cited for analysis of why recent large movements frequently fail to convert street power into lasting reforms.