Water 'Bankruptcy' Era Has Begun for Billions, Scientists Say

Mega-Projects, Aqueducts, and Desalination

• Moving Great Lakes water to the US Southwest is widely seen as unrealistic:
  • Legal barriers: interstate compact and treaties with Canada restrict diversion outside the basin.
  • Economic/technical barriers: colossal cost, long lead times, elevation changes over multiple mountain ranges, and transmission losses.
  • Strategic cost: lowering lake levels would harm major shipping lanes and port cities.
• Many argue large-scale desalination plus pipelines is more plausible than cross-continent aqueducts, but:
  • It’s capital intensive; richer regions (e.g., coastal California) can absorb costs more easily than Arizona/Nevada.
  • Desal is getting cheaper, yet still demands big public investment and political will.
• Some suggest hydrogen production as a “twofer” (energy storage + fresh water byproduct), acknowledging inefficiency but banking on very cheap solar.

Southwest Water, Cities, and Agriculture

• Multiple commenters stress agriculture, not households, dominates use: ~70–75% of water for farming vs ~7% residential.
• Especially criticized: desert livestock feed (e.g., alfalfa) and meat exports, often for overseas markets.
• Debate over whether the “Southwest” is unsustainable vs specifically its agricultural model.
• Some propose halting urban growth or relocating people rather than endlessly extending water systems.

Overpopulation vs Mismanagement

• One camp: local overpopulation (e.g., parts of North Africa, Middle East) is the main driver; per‑capita water availability is collapsing.
• Another camp: the planet has enough water, food, and energy; core issues are logistics, corruption, bad incentives, and explosive population growth fueled by aid.
• A third view: both are true—systems run at capacity, so any climate shock tips regions into crisis.

Infrastructure, Leakage, and Privatization

• Undermaintained grids and leakage are called “the biggest cause” of practical scarcity, especially where deep aquifers are tapped and leaks flow to rivers/oceans.
• UK examples:
  • No new reservoirs since privatization, heavy leakage, and reliance on consumer cutbacks instead of upstream investment.
  • Strong criticism that private water firms extract large profits while underinvesting.
  • Counter-argument: any system (public or private) must fund large capital projects; real comparison should be profits vs would‑be bond interest.
• Some note huge upcoming replacement costs for aging public systems in the US as well.

Pollution and “Irreversible” Loss

• Cases of PFAS contamination in groundwater illustrate “permanent” damage requiring multi‑million‑dollar treatment plants and ongoing filter costs.
• Concern that regulators may relax standards rather than fully address cleanup.
• Tension between scientists warning of “irreversible loss” and readers who feel constant apocalypse talk undermines trust and motivation.

Local Adaptation, Land Use, and Governance

• Historical precedents: abandoned cities in India/SE Asia due to water failure; recent Indian examples where house‑site pits help reliably recharge groundwater.
• UK stories of drained peat bogs and canalized rivers:
  • These once acted as natural sponges for flood control and drought buffering.
  • Restoration brings conflicts with farmers and common grazing rights; proposals include compensation or state purchase of land/rights.
• Broader point: environmental restoration often collides with property expectations and rural livelihoods.

Behavioral and Policy Levers

• Diet:
  • Strong argument that shifting from animal products to plant-based diets could dramatically reduce water withdrawals, especially from stressed basins like the Colorado.
  • Skeptics doubt large-scale dietary change but see promise in agricultural reform (irrigation efficiency, discouraging export-heavy, water‑intensive crops in arid regions).
• Governance and planning:
  • Recurrent theme that many “shortages” in wealthy countries are political and institutional failures, not hard physical limits.
  • Some warn of potential future interstate or even civil conflicts over water rights if these issues remain unmanaged.