Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

Original Article ↗ Hacker News Discussion ↗

Future of US Hegemony & Global Order

  • Debate over whether anyone will “replace” US leadership vs a shift back to a multipolar world with regional blocs (EU–India–Latin America, ASEAN, etc.).
  • China seen by some as the only plausible successor: economically powerful, “evil but sane/predictable”; others argue it lacks key ingredients (force projection, reserve currency, open capital account).
  • Moral comparison is contentious: some stress China’s repression (Uyghurs, surveillance, Taiwan threats); others counter with US wars, sanctions, surveillance, and argue Western criticism is selective.
  • Concern that US unpredictability (tariffs as blackmail, threats against allies, annexation talk) is pushing Europe and others to diversify eastward and away from the dollar.
  • Counterpoint: de‑dollarization is still limited; USD remains dominant in reserves, trade invoicing, and global debt obligations, though its share is slowly declining.

AI Bubble & Crash Risk

  • Many see AI as a bubble fueled by ultra‑concentrated capital: operating costs exceed income, CAPEX is enormous, and broader US growth looks weak without AI.
  • Others argue AI is unlike blockchain/metaverse because it already has clear utility (coding, search, some business workflows), and large chunks of spending are effectively defense/sovereign IT modernization (e.g., “Stargate”), not purely speculative.
  • Concern that if AI spending falls, it could expose how little else is driving US growth and trigger a broader downturn.

Labor Market, Inequality & K‑Shaped Economy

  • Several describe a “K‑shaped” dual economy: affluent top 10% driving most consumption while many are pushed into gig or fractional work; official unemployment understates distress.
  • Disagreement: some think elites can indefinitely extract from an underclass; others point out 70% of GDP is consumer spending, so hollowing out the bottom eventually stalls growth.
  • AI’s impact on jobs divides opinion:
    • One view: higher developer productivity ultimately boosts output and demand for engineers (Jevons‑style).
    • Another: firms simply lay off staff and keep output flat, leading to mass displacement and calls for UBI.

Personal Protection & Investing Debates

  • Frequent suggestions: gold/silver (often via mining stocks), international and non‑US assets, recession‑resistant sectors (food, utilities, insurance), plus geographic diversification.
  • Pushback: precious metals may already be in a bubble; dramatic silver spike then ~25–30% intraday drop is cited as evidence.
  • Many emphasize diversification, avoiding all‑in timing bets, building skills, and adopting a frugal lifestyle as more robust hedges than any single asset.

Are We Already in a Crash?

  • Some claim the “crash” is underway, just masked by inflation, dollar decline, and index levels measured in USD.
  • Others counter: with recent strong GDP prints, high stock indices, and still‑moderate unemployment, talk of imminent collapse remains speculative—similar to many past failed doom predictions.