Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

Hydrogen Infrastructure and User Experience

• Commenters report extremely sparse, unreliable fueling: ~50 stations in California, many offline, pressure-limited, or out of fuel.
• Practical use is effectively confined to parts of Southern California and a few dense European regions; elsewhere there may be only one or zero stations per country.
• Even near stations, owners describe queues, partial fills, and station explosions or shutdowns; many Mirais are observed only within a small radius of a station.

Cost, Efficiency, and Fuel Production

• Hydrogen at retail is very expensive (examples around $30–36/kg), giving fuel costs often higher than diesel or gasoline and similar to or worse than public fast EV charging.
• Multiple commenters stress the poor “well-to-wheel” efficiency of hydrogen vs battery-electric. Electricity → H₂ → tank → fuel cell → motor wastes far more energy than direct charging.
• Most current hydrogen is said to come from fossil gas (steam methane reforming), not electrolysis; “green hydrogen” is viewed as niche and energy‑intensive, with no plausible 10× cost drop.

Mirai Depreciation and Market Dynamics

• Used Mirais selling at ~10–15% of original MSRP in ~4 years are cited as examples of extreme depreciation.
• Some argue comparisons should use actual transaction prices, since large discounts, rebates, and free fuel cards were common; others note that even net of incentives, resale is terrible.
• Many Mirais were leased or sold to fleets and image‑driven buyers exploiting subsidies; individual buyers are now “trapped” by collapsing station networks.

Use Cases Beyond Passenger Cars

• Several commenters see limited potential niches: long-duration grid storage, green steel, maybe aviation or shipping, or synthetic fuels.
• Others counter that even in trucks, buses and trains, batteries plus grid upgrades, overhead lines, or depot charging are advancing faster and cheaper than hydrogen.

Safety, Materials, and Handling

• Hydrogen’s storage challenges—high pressure, low density, leakage through metals, embrittlement, wide explosive range—are cited repeatedly.
• Some note industrial hydrogen is routinely handled safely; others argue consumer-scale deployment magnifies risk and cost.

Japan/Toyota Strategy and Policy

• Hydrogen push is linked to Japan’s energy‑security hedging and fertilizer supply, and Toyota’s historic bet on fuel cells vs early BEVs.
• Many now see that bet as a costly dead end: EVs scaled, hydrogen infra didn’t, subsidies are fading, and Mirai residuals reflect that.

EVs vs Hydrogen: Transition Narrative

• Consensus in the thread: for personal cars, battery EVs have “won” on simplicity, efficiency, and infrastructure leverage.
• Pro‑hydrogen voices mostly argue for technological pluralism or future breakthroughs; opponents see hydrogen road cars as physics‑ and economics‑limited, propped up by lobbying and subsidies.