Smartphone market forecast to decline this year due to memory shortage

Apple, Samsung, and DRAM Pricing

• Commenters note Apple’s strong recent iPhone sales and cash position; many think Apple and Samsung are best positioned to absorb higher DRAM costs and gain share as small Android vendors get squeezed.
• Debate over whether Apple paid a “king’s ransom” versus simple market price, but general agreement that large buyers can still secure supply.

Was the DRAM Shortage Deliberately Engineered?

• A linked piece accuses OpenAI of using monopsony power to lock up DRAM, “artificially” creating a shortage and hurting the broader tech ecosystem.
• Some call this massive market manipulation deserving severe legal consequences; others say this overstates OpenAI’s power and mocks the idea they can “forcibly prevent” RAM makers from expanding capacity.
• Several note the DRAM industry’s history of price‑fixing cases and argue any narrative must include oligopolistic behavior by memory vendors.
• Others push back: HBM uses far more wafer area per bit, AI demand may actually be unprecedented, and nobody outside industry has hard data, so motives are “unclear.”

AI Datacenters, Overinvestment, and Macroeffects

• Many see huge AI datacenter build‑out as distorting capital allocation: starving other sectors, raising component prices, and weakening customer service and product quality as companies chase AI cost cuts.
• There’s disagreement on sustainability: some think data centers are already financed and will complete, others cite lawsuits and debt concerns (e.g., Oracle) and predict cancellations, asset fire sales, and future DRAM gluts.

Consoles, Phones, and Device Roadmaps

• A reported slip of Playstation 6 to ~2029 is cited as evidence consoles are especially vulnerable to DRAM costs. Some doubt the rumor; others highlight how higher DRAM costs threaten sub‑$100 phones permanently.
• Discussion around Switch‑like devices: RAM cuts post‑launch are seen as unrealistic because games target a fixed memory budget.
• Several users report sticking with older phones (Pixel 3a, S9, SEs) that still feel “good enough,” seeing little reason to upgrade amid rising ASPs.

OS Memory Management, Web Bloat, and User Experience

• Large subthread on iOS/Android aggressively killing background apps and Safari tabs despite 12 GB+ RAM. Many blame OS policies and modern web/app bloat, not raw memory.
• Complaints center on lost state, forced reloads on flaky mobile networks, and “rot” in platform quality versus earlier generations.
• Some hope the DRAM squeeze and higher costs will finally push developers toward more efficient software; others fear AI tools will instead accelerate low‑quality, bloated code.

Consumer Adaptation, Resale, and Environment

• Multiple comments promote used phones (e.g., used iPhone 13) as cheap, effective alternatives that reduce waste.
• Others frame slowing smartphone sales as healthy commoditization: phones becoming like microwaves—replaced for necessity, not fashion.
• A few celebrate downsizing digital lives (canceling subscriptions, deleting apps) as a rational response to higher costs and lower perceived value.

Forecasts, Cartels, and Open Questions

• IDC’s claim that DRAM prices may “never” return to prior lows is met with skepticism; commenters recall past boom‑bust cycles and weak forecasting track records.
• Some think current DRAM pricing and supply constraints will eventually over‑incentivize capacity, leading to a crash; others suspect coordinated supply discipline by entrenched vendors.
• Whether this episode marks a lasting structural shift in memory economics or just another volatile cycle is widely regarded as unresolved.