Tech employment now significantly worse than the 2008 or 2020 recessions

Original Article ↗ Hacker News Discussion ↗

How bad is the current downturn?

  • The chart discussed is year‑over‑year change in employment (a first derivative), not total jobs.
  • Many note that total tech employment is still well above 2008 and 2020; recent losses give back only part of the huge 2021–2023 gains.
  • Others argue that with far more tech workers now, flat or shrinking job counts still translate into a very tough market, especially for new entrants.

COVID-era overhiring and interest rates

  • Widespread view: 2020–2022 saw massive overhiring fueled by zero/low interest rates and pandemic-driven demand, especially in “big tech” and gaming.
  • The current downturn is framed as a correction and “hangover” from that period, not a collapse from a healthy baseline.
  • Some companies are still shrinking US headcount while expanding in lower-cost regions.

Oversupply, credentialism, and ghost jobs

  • Many blame a surge of bootcamp grads and “learn to code” entrants for diluting the talent pool and raising competition.
  • Complaints about ghost postings, ATS auto‑rejections, and roles pre-filled internally but posted for compliance.
  • Degree and school pedigree (target vs non‑target) and niche domain experience are said to matter more again.

AI’s impact on software work

  • Consensus that AI isn’t the primary cause of the downturn yet, but is rapidly changing expectations.
  • Strong theme: AI dramatically boosts the best engineers; juniors and weak mids can generate code but struggle to judge or architect it.
  • Some see juniors + AI as a liability; others say AI accelerates their ramp‑up but makes mid‑level roles vulnerable.
  • Several worry about a lost “baptism by fire” phase for new devs who lean on AI instead of building fundamentals.

Bimodal labor market and interviewing

  • Repeated claim: market is “bimodal” — top candidates still get strong offers, while “average” devs struggle to get callbacks.
  • Job seekers report many applications, few interviews, and compensation bands far below pandemic peaks.
  • Hiring managers report being flooded with low‑quality or AI‑assisted applicants and cheating on tests, making screening harder.

Remote work, geography, and offshoring

  • Remote‑only roles exist but are seen as hyper‑competitive; referrals and networks dominate.
  • Some argue that return‑to‑office and offshoring are bigger drivers of US reductions than AI.
  • Advice from multiple commenters: being in major hubs and building in‑person relationships still confers a major advantage.

Coping and long‑term outlook

  • Some suggest tech will stabilize after this correction; others see a structural shift toward fewer, more elite roles.
  • A nontrivial number discuss plan‑B careers (nursing, trades, classic car repair, etc.) or going indie/bootstrapping with AI tools.