Tech employment now significantly worse than the 2008 or 2020 recessions
Hiring in software and related “tech” roles has cooled sharply after the pandemic-era boom, leaving many mid-level and even senior engineers struggling to get interviews or reasonable offers despite overall employment still being higher than in past recessions. Commenters point to post‑COVID overhiring, higher interest rates, offshoring, ATS filters, and “ghost jobs” as major drivers, with AI so far serving more as an excuse than the primary cause—though it is clearly amplifying the productivity and bargaining power of top performers. The result is a far more competitive, bimodal market in which credentials, networks, location, and soft skills matter more, salary bands are compressing, and traditional application channels often feel broken.
How bad is the current downturn?
- The chart discussed is year‑over‑year change in employment (a first derivative), not total jobs.
- Many note that total tech employment is still well above 2008 and 2020; recent losses give back only part of the huge 2021–2023 gains.
- Others argue that with far more tech workers now, flat or shrinking job counts still translate into a very tough market, especially for new entrants.
COVID-era overhiring and interest rates
- Widespread view: 2020–2022 saw massive overhiring fueled by zero/low interest rates and pandemic-driven demand, especially in “big tech” and gaming.
- The current downturn is framed as a correction and “hangover” from that period, not a collapse from a healthy baseline.
- Some companies are still shrinking US headcount while expanding in lower-cost regions.
Oversupply, credentialism, and ghost jobs
- Many blame a surge of bootcamp grads and “learn to code” entrants for diluting the talent pool and raising competition.
- Complaints about ghost postings, ATS auto‑rejections, and roles pre-filled internally but posted for compliance.
- Degree and school pedigree (target vs non‑target) and niche domain experience are said to matter more again.
AI’s impact on software work
- Consensus that AI isn’t the primary cause of the downturn yet, but is rapidly changing expectations.
- Strong theme: AI dramatically boosts the best engineers; juniors and weak mids can generate code but struggle to judge or architect it.
- Some see juniors + AI as a liability; others say AI accelerates their ramp‑up but makes mid‑level roles vulnerable.
- Several worry about a lost “baptism by fire” phase for new devs who lean on AI instead of building fundamentals.
Bimodal labor market and interviewing
- Repeated claim: market is “bimodal” — top candidates still get strong offers, while “average” devs struggle to get callbacks.
- Job seekers report many applications, few interviews, and compensation bands far below pandemic peaks.
- Hiring managers report being flooded with low‑quality or AI‑assisted applicants and cheating on tests, making screening harder.
Remote work, geography, and offshoring
- Remote‑only roles exist but are seen as hyper‑competitive; referrals and networks dominate.
- Some argue that return‑to‑office and offshoring are bigger drivers of US reductions than AI.
- Advice from multiple commenters: being in major hubs and building in‑person relationships still confers a major advantage.
Coping and long‑term outlook
- Some suggest tech will stabilize after this correction; others see a structural shift toward fewer, more elite roles.
- A nontrivial number discuss plan‑B careers (nursing, trades, classic car repair, etc.) or going indie/bootstrapping with AI tools.