Oil nears $110 a barrel after gas field strike

Geopolitics, Energy, and the EU

• Several comments argue the gas field strike deepens EU dependence on US LNG after losing Russian and Qatari options, weakening both EU and Gulf monarchies while strengthening US energy leverage.
• Others say the EU has long understood its vulnerability but had no “good” options: it must choose among Russia, the Middle East, and the US while trying to cut fossil use.
• Past decisions to shut nuclear plants are criticized as self‑inflicted, though restarting or building new reactors is seen as slow and difficult.
• Some claim Russian energy will not be politically acceptable in Europe for the foreseeable future, even if the war ends.

Assassination, Regime Change, and Russia/Iran

• A highly contentious subthread debates covert assassination of leaders (Russia, Israel, Iran) as a way to alter energy and security dynamics.
• Many call this naive, immoral, or destabilizing, noting entrenched elites, deep state structures, and the risk of escalation or retaliation.
• Others counter that some populations might welcome such outcomes, but the overall practicality and predictability are widely questioned.

Israel, Iran, and Moral Hazard

• Multiple comments argue that attacks on Iran’s gas field and broader regional escalations are driven by Israel under a US security umbrella, with the rest of the world bearing economic costs.
• Others stress Iran’s long‑term support for anti‑Israel armed groups and say both sides commit terrorism and war crimes.
• There is disagreement over how much US policy is driven by domestic interests vs. foreign lobbying, and whether war with Iran benefits the US at all.

Oil Prices, Markets, and Downstream Effects

• Posters distinguish futures prices from spot prices at Asian hubs, claiming actual landed costs and many oil‑derived additives (fluids, DEF, antifreeze) are spiking sharply.
• Fertilizer prices are said to be ~40% higher, raising fears about global food costs and economic strain, though some point out oil near $100 has occurred before without “destroying” the world economy.

Climate Change, Alternatives, and Energy Transitions

• Some argue high oil prices are painful but could accelerate decarbonization and keep warming nearer 1.5°C by making renewables and EVs more attractive.
• Others respond that in the US, high prices tend to trigger more drilling, not a climate push, and that demand for oil byproducts will persist.
• A separate strand claims sustained high prices could:
  • Make coal‑to‑liquids economical.
  • Boost investments in wind, solar, and EVs, especially where oil supply is constrained.
  • Reactivate US shale (“frackers”) if prices stay high.
• The idea that starting a war was intended to promote green tech is widely dismissed as implausible, though some acknowledge it could be an unintended side effect if prices remain high for years.

Uncertainty and Risk Outlook

• Some predict prices and geopolitical fallout will get “a lot worse”; others argue true certainty would already be priced in.
• The duration and severity of the crisis, and whether it triggers structural shifts versus another short‑lived oil shock, are seen as fundamentally unclear.