Miscellanea: The War in Iran

Scale and Difficulty of War with Iran

• Commenters note Iran is far larger, more populous, and more technologically advanced than Saddam’s Iraq, with decades of preparation for asymmetric defense.
• Some argue this makes a ground invasion worse than Afghanistan, Iraq, and Vietnam combined; others say Iran has lost much of its air/naval capacity and is weaker than it appears.

Objectives and Strategic Logic

• Many see the war as primarily serving Israeli security aims and the desire to break the “Axis of Resistance” (Iran, Hezbollah, proxies).
• Others frame it as a US‑Iran power struggle, with Iran seeking regional hegemony and the US seeking global dominance and protection of allies.
• Several argue a major but under-discussed driver is constraining China by threatening its oil supply and controlling chokepoints (Hormuz, Red Sea, Suez).
• A minority thinks there is no coherent grand strategy; instead, they see short‑term domestic politics, donor influence, and personal enrichment as the main drivers.

Strait of Hormuz and Global Energy

• Broad agreement that Iran’s ability to disrupt Hormuz is central. Artillery, drones, missiles, mines, and sunken ships could all threaten traffic.
• Dispute over whether Iran already effectively “held the strait ransom” before the war or only gained real leverage after it began.
• The reported $2M “toll” per transit, preference for payment in yuan, and insurance-driven closures are seen as:
  • A direct economic weapon against US allies and China.
  • A potential, though contested, challenge to dollar dominance.
• Some argue this war was a huge own goal for “freedom of navigation”; others think Gulf states and possibly a wider coalition will ultimately move to break Iranian control.

Nuclear Program and Proliferation

• Fierce disagreement over JCPOA: some call it flawed but better than nothing; others say it merely delayed inevitable weaponization.
• Several note the war powerfully reinforces the lesson that only nuclear weapons reliably deter US attacks, incentivizing proliferation.

Domestic Politics, Revolutions, and Legitimacy

• Skepticism that this war will trigger revolution in Iran; many think existential war solidifies the regime and drains opposition.
• Others think repeated economic shocks could still destabilize Iran or, alternatively, spark upheaval in the US, Egypt, or Gulf monarchies.
• Multiple comments stress that bombing civilians and infrastructure likely strengthens the regime’s legitimacy and “rally round the flag” effect.

US and Allied Competence

• Strong criticism of US decision‑making: overreliance on yes‑men, ideology (“warrior narcissism”), and belief that removing leaders automatically yields friendly regimes.
• Millennium Challenge 2002 is repeatedly cited as an example of ignoring inconvenient war‑game results and scripting “victory.”
• Some argue the war has exposed the limits of US and Israeli power, degraded stockpiles, and damaged alliances and public support.

Impact on Energy Transition

• Many expect sustained high oil prices to accelerate renewables and EV adoption; others fear this will instead justify more drilling and old‑style imperialism.
• There is debate over how much energy sovereignty renewables truly provide, but broad agreement that reducing oil dependence would blunt future Hormuz‑style leverage.