Good ideas do not need lots of lies in order to gain public acceptance (2008)

Heuristic about lies and “good ideas”

• Core idea: if an idea requires sustained deception to gain acceptance, that’s strong evidence it’s bad.
• Many see this as a useful heuristic but not a universal law; good ideas still need marketing, timing, and good communicators.
• Inversion noted: good ideas may require lies to lose public acceptance, given current levels of misinformation.

Iraq War, trust, and elite narratives

• Several comments revisit Iraq: leaders made clearly false claims about WMDs; the article’s “don’t give liars the benefit of the doubt” heuristic is praised.
• Debate over whether predicting “no WMD” was a special insight or just basic skepticism.
• Some emphasize how many institutions and politicians went along, and how this still shapes distrust of elites.

AI, surveillance, and authoritarianism

• Strong concern that AI will supercharge surveillance states, reduce legal accountability (“who do I sue?”), and automate repression.
• Others argue states have long had tools for brutality; AI is an efficiency upgrade, not a fundamentally new evil.
• Disagreement over how much automation changes the limits on state violence and surveillance (e.g., fewer humans with consciences in the loop).

AI hype and corporate incentives

• Many see AI hype as driven by massive capital outlays that must be justified to investors.
• Worry that rapid deployment plus exaggerated claims leaves little room for evaluation and safeguards.
• Apple is cited as a contrasting, slower-moving strategy, possibly benefiting from avoiding obsolete spend.

Stock options, RSUs, and accounting

• Long subthread on the original context: expensing stock options and whether non‑expensing was a “lie.”
• Some argue options became widespread and helped firms compete; others say that doesn’t justify opaque accounting.
• RSUs increasingly replace options; options are seen as risky for employees, often valued at or near zero in practice.
• Debate over whether employees have enough inside knowledge to justify investing heavily in their own employer’s stock.

Public acceptance, marketing, and truth

• Repeated theme: ideas win public acceptance based more on narrative, memorability, and social validation than truth.
• Examples raised: coal power, climate policy, cryptocurrency, online age checks, COVID messaging.
• Some argue good ideas often face inertia and social fear of originality; bad ideas can thrive with emotionally effective marketing, even without explicit lies.

War, herd behavior, and decision-making

• Discussion of “following the herd” as often rational but easily exploited when leaders lie.
• Argument that principle-based analysis can outperform the herd but is effortful and socially costly.
• Debate over which U.S. wars post‑WWII had “good outcomes,” with sharp disagreement on the Gulf War’s long‑term effects.

EVs, climate, and practical inertia

• Several note EVs are personally great (comfort, low running cost) yet adoption lags due to inertia, cost, charging constraints, and insurance.
• Disagreement over whether EVs are being oversold, under‑marketed to the mass market, or blocked mainly by economics and infrastructure.
• Climate mitigation is widely seen as a “good idea,” but some express readiness to use scare tactics if plain facts don’t move people.

Miscellaneous

• Brief notes on cookie banners feeling hypocritical on a post about lies, concerns about declining U.S. leadership in research/space, and how high‑profile public health lies erode trust.