Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

Original Article ↗ Hacker News Discussion ↗

Bot concept and scope

  • Bot automatically buys “No” on Polymarket non‑sports markets, based on the observation that ~73% of markets resolve to “No.”
  • Described by the author as a meme project with no risk management and no claimed returns; also useful as a template for writing custom bots.
  • Excludes sports partly because of platform plumbing (some sports markets are internally Yes/No in non‑obvious ways).

Profitability and math debate

  • Many commenters stress that “73% of markets resolve No” does not imply profit; pricing and payouts matter.
  • Example: if “No” resolves correctly 83% of the time but pays too little, the strategy still loses.
  • Some report backtests and small live trials: modest or no profits in practice, especially once resolution timing and opportunity cost are accounted for.
  • Others claim they’ve seen positive edge (e.g., always selling overpriced longshots), but note high variance and limited capacity.

Market efficiency, biases, and crowding

  • Discussion of whether prediction markets are reasonably efficient: insiders and sophisticated traders tend to arbitrage away simple edges.
  • Known bias: dramatic/long‑shot “Yes” outcomes often overpriced because they’re more fun, suggesting some structural edge on “No.”
  • Any systematic edge is expected to shrink once widely publicized; open‑sourcing a working strategy would help price it away.

Risk, variance, and “pennies before steamroller”

  • Several compare the approach to selling options or “picking up pennies in front of a steamroller”: many small wins, occasional big losses.
  • Counterpoint: downside is capped per bet and can be managed with position sizing (e.g., Kelly‑style), but correlation between events and thin liquidity make real‑world implementation tricky.

Data and backtesting

  • Data quality is a challenge; realistic backtests need full order books and accurate resolution times.
  • A large Polymarket dataset on Hugging Face is referenced for research and strategy testing.

Prediction markets, ethics, and regulation

  • Strong debate over whether these platforms are just unregulated casinos exploiting gamblers or valuable tools revealing insider and expert beliefs.
  • Concerns raised about manipulation, house behavior (fees, disputes), and moral issues (e.g., markets on wars, assassinations, leaders losing power).
  • US access and KYC rules are murky; some mention official US entry paths, others mention crypto and VPN workarounds.