Apocalypse Early Warning System

Concept & Core Metric

• Site tracks private-jet takeoffs as a proxy for elites fleeing cities before an “Event.”
• Metric is calibrated so roughly one day per year exceeds the max level, which some see as making a “Level 5” essentially non-alarming.

Feasibility of Jet-Based Warning

• Many argue nuclear strike warning times (minutes) are too short to reach an airport, prep a jet, and depart.
• Others note the system targets earlier indicators (wars, crises) where rich insiders might move hours or days in advance, not during inbound missiles.
• Several point out that in an actual nuclear exchange, sheltering locally may be safer than trying to fly.

Transponders, ADS-B, and Flight Procedures

• Multiple commenters say ADS‑B/transponders on modern jets are usually on by default once powered; disabling them is non-standard.
• In a functioning airspace system, flying dark risks delays, conflicts with ATC, and possibly interception; even in crisis, collision-avoidance is a reason to keep them on.
• Some note most business jets use towered airports, though many airports overall are untowered.

Who Gets Early Warning?

• Debate over whether “the rich” as a class have special apocalyptic notice, versus a much narrower set (senior officials, defense contractors, political insiders).
• Skepticism that information would be uniformly shared across all jet owners.
• Discussion of prepper-style plans involving helicopters-to-jets-to-bunkers, often citing New Zealand; others doubt such bunkers’ long-term viability or political acceptance.

Alternative / Additional Signals

• Suggestions: monitor government and “doomsday” aircraft, military tanker/cargo patterns, encrypted radio traffic, and exercises.
• Proposals to track large contiguous failures in weather stations or network infrastructure, with jokes about fiber cuts being indistinguishable from apocalypse.
• Ideas to integrate prediction markets (e.g., Polymarket bets on wars or religious events), though payouts might be moot in true apocalypses.

Similar Projects & Data Coverage

• Past projects mentioned, like an “Apocalypse Feed” combining network pings, space weather, asteroid data, and news scraping; another site tracks >1M-fatality risks.
• Critique that current implementation is US-centric due to FAA registry; ADS‑B data could broaden coverage to non-US jets.

Limitations, Noise & Latency

• Several note fundamental issues: noisy, incomplete data and signal construction that lags actual events.
• Lowering latency would raise false positives; more diverse, lower-latency sources would be needed.
• Some argue mainstream news and visible geopolitical escalation will remain more reliable indicators.

Tone of Reactions

• Many find the project amusing, “cool,” or more useful than vague “monitoring the situation” dashboards.
• Others see it as basically ineffective for real safety decisions but entertaining as art, commentary, or a curiosity.