Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

Nature of the “insider trading” problem

• Many distinguish between:
  • Legitimate informational edges (e.g., satellite/helicopter observation of oil tanks) that anyone with resources could replicate.
  • Abuse of non-public government decisions (e.g., war moves and public statements) by political insiders who owe a duty of confidentiality.
• Several argue the key harm is not just “being smarter,” but misappropriating information that belongs to the public and then trading on it.

Market impact and the “corruption tax”

• One camp claims the direct counterparty to an insider can even benefit (better price than without the insider), so harm is diffuse or marginal.
• Others, invoking market microstructure, argue:
  • Market makers widen spreads when they fear informed insiders.
  • Hedgers and ordinary traders face higher transaction costs.
  • Over time, this raises a “corruption tax” on everyone and deters honest participation and price discovery.
• Some say insider-induced instability is particularly bad because it creates incentives to manufacture volatility, rather than reflect real information.

Legality, enforcement, and unequal treatment

• Multiple comments note that commodities are regulated by the CFTC, and a criminal probe reportedly exists, but there is deep skepticism that enforcement under the current executive will be meaningful.
• Broader frustration: petty crime is punished aggressively, while large-scale white-collar and political corruption is tolerated or even normalized.
• Some tie this to structural weaknesses: presidential influence over enforcement, court decisions expanding executive immunity, and a Congress seen as abdicated.

Futures markets and hedging

• Debate over how much real-economy players (airlines, producers, manufacturers) still hedge via futures versus simply adjusting prices or cancelling capacity.
• Some insist hedging remains important for previously sold tickets and physical delivery; others say speculation dominates short-term price moves.

Political and societal context

• Many frame the issue as emblematic of late-stage imperial decline, oligarchy/kakistocracy, and bipartisan foreign-policy and energy strategies.
• Side discussions examine voter responsibility, two-party lock-in, weak civic education, and media narratives.
• A few ask pragmatically “what can be done,” with responses ranging from pessimism to calls for systemic reform.

“At whose expense?”

• One skeptical view: the main losers are hedge funds or sophisticated counterparties, not the general public.
• Others counter that higher, more volatile energy prices and wider spreads ultimately flow through to consumers and real businesses.