The old world of tech is dying and the new cannot be born
A widely shared essay arguing that the “old world” of US‑centric tech and geopolitics is collapsing prompted heated debate over how real that shift is. Commenters clash over whether American dominance in AI, finance, and global “rules-based order” is being eroded by strategic failures, demographic and education problems, and a rising China, or whether current AI demand and talent concentration in the US show the opposite. Many also raise concerns that today’s AI boom papers over a rotten software industry, accelerates labor displacement and wealth concentration, and is enabled by regulation that serves incumbent power rather than societal outcomes.
Language, Metaphor, and Style
- Some object to the article’s title as “things can’t die or be born,” others respond that metaphorical use (e.g., “death of disco”) is normal and useful.
- A side thread riffs on capitalization and informality as register choices rather than just laziness.
Quality and Accuracy of the Article
- Several commenters praise the piece as unusually well written and insightful.
- Others find it meandering, anecdote-driven, and geopolitically “delusional,” disputing claims about Iran “winning,” US decline in Asia, and the petrodollar’s end.
- There is disagreement over whether recent US actions (e.g., in the Gulf region) mark a historic strategic blunder or continuity with past failures like Iraq.
AI Boom: Reality vs Hype
- Practitioners describe overwhelming demand for AI: data centers saturated, rapid revenue growth, high salaries, strong startup capital, and the US as primary talent hub.
- Critics see a bubble fueled by VC money, FOMO, and “missile‑gap” style anxiety; they question whether AI yields sustained productivity or just cost-shifted dysfunction.
- Enterprise anecdotes report modest gains offset by large amounts of wasted effort, hallucinated outputs in formal documents, and burnout from “babysitting” agents.
- Debate over whether AI is “real intelligence” or just token prediction; some insist its non‑intelligence and error rate limit net gains.
US vs China, Open vs Closed Models
- One camp claims US frontier models and labs outpace Chinese open source; another counters with citations that Chinese models are near‑par, cheaper, and rapidly improving.
- Hardware constraints and export controls are seen by some as a US advantage; others argue China is catching up and already dominant across many key technologies.
- Many argue open, self‑hosted models will eventually dominate due to cost, customization, and freedom from provider whims; others say current open‑source efforts lag.
Language, Education, and Long-Term Power
- English as global tech lingua franca is framed as a major US advantage but possibly eroding with automated translation.
- Some note English’s structural flexibility and loanword friendliness; others say its real “moat” is sheer installed base, not inherent superiority.
- Commenters worry that US demographic trends, weakened education, and curtailed immigration will undermine the talent “flywheel.”
Tech, Regulation, and Empire
- Discussion echoes the article’s claim that big tech shifted from empowering users to controlling them, with cloud/SaaS lock‑in as emblematic.
- Regulation is criticized as either overly tech-specific or too vague, easy for corporations to route around, and rarely evaluated or iterated for real-world outcomes.
- Several frame large US firms as “tools of empire,” aligned with state power, pursuing AI primarily for labor displacement and wealth concentration.