Disney erased FiveThirtyEight
Disney’s removal of FiveThirtyEight’s archives after shutting down the brand has prompted criticism of how large media conglomerates treat acquired intellectual property and digital history. Commenters see the disappearance of years of data journalism as emblematic of capricious corporate management, misaligned incentives in acquisitions, and a broader problem of “vanishing culture” online. The thread also revisits long‑running arguments about the value and limitations of Nate Silver–style election models, public misunderstanding of probabilistic forecasts, and perceived ideological shifts in major news outlets.
Media bias and Overton window
- Disagreement over whether mainstream US media has moved left or right.
- Some argue outlets like NYT/WaPo/CBS have shifted right, citing framing differences and more sympathetic treatment of conservative politicians.
- Others say coverage is “steady” but looks rightward only because activist politics moved left; still others note ownership by billionaires and corporate interests as the real driver.
- Overton window movement itself is contested: some say it’s shifted right (basic pro‑science or net neutrality now framed as “leftist”), others see the opposite.
FiveThirtyEight’s models, polling, and public expectations
- Large subthread revisits 2016: 538’s ~30% probability for Trump is defended as statistically reasonable but widely misinterpreted as “won’t happen.”
- Many note broad statistical illiteracy: people read probabilities as certainties or confuse “chance of winning” with “share of vote.”
- Some criticize early primary calls (e.g., very low Trump nomination odds) and say that once 538 “missed” in 2016, it lost value as a unique predictor.
- Others stress limits of polling in US voluntary voting: turnout uncertainty, sampling issues, correlated state errors, and fast‑changing coalitions (e.g., 2024 turnout shifts, demographics).
- There’s debate over whether public horse‑race forecasting is useful or mostly demoralizing / misleading to voters.
Disney/ABC handling of FiveThirtyEight
- Many see the deletion/redirecting of archives as petty, culturally destructive, and emblematic of big‑company disregard for history.
- Some argue it likely saved trivial server costs, so looks more like a signaling or control move than economics.
- Comparison to other Disney acquisitions (ESPN, Pixar, Marvel, Star Wars): debate over whether reputations declined under Disney or simply peaked and normalized.
Corporate incentives, leadership churn, and acquisitions
- Multiple comments generalize this to big‑company behavior: leadership changes kill predecessors’ “pet projects” regardless of success.
- Successful firms with strong moats are seen as especially prone to “executive whimsy,” because they can afford mismanagement.
- Discussion links this to broader consolidation (Telecommunications Act, media ownership), oligarchic tendencies, and an “executive class” insulated from consequences.
Archiving and digital memory
- Strong support for the Internet Archive as de facto long‑term memory.
- Several urge uploading private archives and explicitly archiving blogs, noting high rates of link rot and paywalling.
- Some point out that Wayback is incomplete and hard to search without exact URLs, so primary sites removing content is still a real loss.