Where does next-token prediction leave us?

Global Attitudes, Class, and Social Contracts

• Several comments question the idea that only the economically secure support AI, citing surveys showing more negative views in the US/EU than in China/developing countries.
• Explanations offered:
  • China is perceived as still on an economic “winning streak” with a more collectivist social contract, so AI is framed as national progress with state-backed retraining and infrastructure.
  • In the US/EU, AI is more often seen through the lens of oligarchy, deindustrialization, weak safety nets, and fear of a “permanent underclass.”
  • Some link AI enthusiasm to cultures focused on quick gains, weaker traditions of critical thinking, and higher corruption.

Democratization, Skills, and Fungibility

• Strong disagreement on whether AI “democratizes” creation:
  • Pro: It lowers barriers to making software, games, tools—like cheap Ferraris broadening access.
  • Contra: Skills were already accessible via free learning; AI instead devalues hard-won expertise and makes workers more fungible, undermining bargaining power.
• Analogies to power looms and earlier automation recur, with some arguing “this time is different” because AI targets most knowledge work.

Jobs, Economy, and Redistribution

• Deep concern about mass displacement, second-order effects (e.g., customers losing income, deflation, oversupply of remaining jobs like trades), and lack of clear political response (UBI, retraining, etc.).
• Some argue historical pattern: productivity gains are ultimately redistributed and create new roles; others counter that redistribution is not automatic and short- to medium-term harm will be severe.
• Debate over who is really at risk: junior devs vs. middle managers vs. whole professions.

Ethics, Responsibility, and Class War Framing

• Moral unease about working for AI labs compared to making guns or doing neutral research; questions of complicity when leadership openly talks about replacing labor.
• References to “class war,” rent-seeking on humanity’s collective output, KYC as an information-control mechanism, and propaganda that redirects anger away from elites.

Nature and Limits of LLMs

• Dispute over “next-token prediction” as a dismissive framing:
  • Some say we’re beyond simple next-token models (RL, reasoning, diffusion).
  • Others maintain that, even with reasoning scaffolds, LLMs remain next-token predictors without true innovation or agency.
• A minority expects LLM progress to plateau; others foresee profound, possibly uncontrollable transformation.

Psychological and Cultural Impact

• Several express apathy and loss of meaning as AI encroaches on craft and learning.
• Others see AI as another powerful tool like Google or Wikipedia, enabling curiosity rather than replacing it.