The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century

Original Article ↗ Hacker News Discussion ↗

Overall view of the IPO and “theft” framing

  • Many see the IPO as primarily a way for insiders to cash out at inflated prices, enabled by index-rule changes and retail enthusiasm.
  • Others argue a public sale can’t literally be “theft,” since participation is voluntary, but critics counter that many people are exposed indirectly via pensions and index funds.

Index rule changes and passive investors

  • Strong concern that Nasdaq’s fast-track inclusion and float-weighting tweaks will force index funds (and thus pensions/401ks) to buy SpaceX quickly at high, volatile prices.
  • Some say index providers are effectively turning passive investing into quasi-active allocation by altering inclusion rules under lobbying pressure.
  • Counterpoint: rule changes are framed by some as “undoing previous manipulation” so indices better reflect the actual market; funds could, in theory, switch to alternative indices.

SpaceX, Tesla, and valuation debates

  • Comparisons to Tesla dominate: Tesla’s very high P/E, relatively modest profit, and slowing growth are cited as evidence that Musk-linked assets can remain wildly overvalued for years.
  • Others stress that markets can stay irrational, shorting is dangerous, and past Tesla bears mis-timed or lost money despite some correct criticisms.

Engineering realism vs. hype

  • Many see Starship point-to-point travel, Mars colonies, lunar projects, space data centers, and space manufacturing as fantasy or grossly underexplained technically and economically.
  • Specific objections: sonic boom and siting issues (e.g., Zurich), enormous orbital cooling requirements for data centers, decades of ISS research with no profitable space manufacturing.
  • Falcon 9 is widely acknowledged as a genuine engineering success, but critics argue the IPO price assumes Starship and other visions already succeeded.

Starlink and core business

  • Starlink is viewed by some as the only clear “jewel,” possibly very valuable, especially in military/defense contexts.
  • Others argue its total addressable market is limited or shrinking as terrestrial networks expand.

Investor responses and strategies

  • Some plan pair trades (long SpaceX, short Tesla) on IPO-related capital rotation.
  • Others expect index-exclusion or “index-minus-SpaceX” ETFs to appear.
  • Broad agreement that both buying and shorting SpaceX will be high risk and timing-sensitive.