Server DRAM prices surge 50% as AI-induced memory shortage hits hyperscalers
Scope of the DRAM Price Spike
- Commenters report large increases across the board:
- Desktop DDR5 nearly doubling in ~2 months; multiple anecdotes of 25–100% jumps vs late 2023 / early 2024.
- DDR4 also rising as demand spills over; server RDIMM sticks that were ~$90 now seen at ~$430.
- Even used ECC and desktop RAM on eBay has roughly doubled compared to year‑old posts.
- Some say RAM had become “ridiculously cheap” pre‑spike; others strongly reject the idea that higher prices are “more reasonable.”
Regional Differences and Tracking
- PCPartPicker trends are confirmed to be US‑centric; price rises there are clear.
- UK and Japan users also report recent spikes using Amazon/camelcamelcamel and local price trackers.
- Southern Europe data appears flatter to some; others insist prices are up ~40% across Europe, suggesting delays or low turnover in local channels.
- PCPartPicker adds EUR‑grouped trends during the thread in response to these questions.
Causes: AI Demand, Hoarding, and Supply Constraints
- Links cite:
- OpenAI’s Stargate plans potentially consuming a large fraction of global DRAM output.
- SK Hynix sold out of production for next year; Adata saying AI datacenters are “gobbling up” DRAM, SSDs, HDDs.
- Hyperscalers reportedly hoard GPUs that can’t even be powered yet, indirectly hoarding attached RAM.
- Some speculate on bulk buying and speculative reselling; others note that previous attempts to flip DDR4 weren’t highly profitable.
Manufacturer Strategy and Market Power
- Several comments argue manufacturers learned from past oversupply crashes and now deliberately underproduce rather than risk low prices; collusion is hinted at but not proven.
- Others counter that shortages are dangerous for vendors and that maximizing output to meet demand is still most profitable.
- Another view: fear, inertia, and technical limits (e.g., HBM vs commodity DRAM, long fab lead times) explain the slow response more than conspiracy.
Impact on Consumers and Builders
- Many regret “just missing” the cheap era when building PCs, NAS boxes, or high‑RAM workstations.
- DDR4 systems (e.g., AM4) are touted as a relative safe harbor.
- Some liken the situation to prior GPU booms where high‑end demand cascaded down and even “junk” parts became valuable.
AI Trajectory and Efficiency Debate
- Some hope the DRAM crunch will force smaller, more efficient models (quantization, MoE, distillation).
- Others respond that intense work on inference efficiency has been ongoing from day one, with many architectures and hardware startups already chasing lower costs.
- One faction hopes the “AI craze” crashes to normalize prices; another argues AI demand will persist and is needed to fund advanced fabs.