States, including CA and NY, sign heat pump memorandum

Heat pump basics & hybrid systems

• Several comments clarify that heat pumps move heat rather than create it; auxiliary electric resistance heat turns them into hybrid systems for very cold days.
• Users report backup strips/furnaces running only a handful of days per year, especially with geothermal systems, but are glad to have them for extreme cold or equipment faults.
• Modern refrigerants are said to be improving low‑temperature performance, pushing down the “too cold for heat pump” threshold.

Economics: electricity vs gas/oil/propane

• In much of the US, commenters say an 80–90% efficient gas furnace is currently cheaper to run than a heat pump, given high electricity and relatively cheap gas.
• A recurring estimate: electricity generally needs to be under ~10–15¢/kWh for a COP≈4 heat pump to beat gas on operating cost.
• Detailed back‑of‑the‑envelope math argues that once power-plant efficiency and transmission losses are included, gas burned directly for heat can beat grid‑electric heat pumps in both cost and primary energy use, especially at low outdoor temperatures.
• Others counter that once full carbon externalities ($50–$200/ton CO₂) and methane leakage are priced in, fossil fuels lose their apparent cost advantage—though some argue this still doesn’t flip the math where electricity is very expensive.
• Oil and propane are widely seen as more expensive per BTU than natural gas; heat pumps can undercut them in many cases.

California’s electricity market & solar policy

• Multiple comments say California IOU power prices (e.g., PG&E) are so high (≈$0.38–$0.60/kWh) that heat pumps and EVs lose much of their economic appeal.
• Municipal utilities in California are reported to charge far less per kWh, feeding arguments that public ownership or liquidation of PG&E would be better.
• CPUC cuts to rooftop-solar net metering are debated:
  • One side: prior net metering overpaid solar owners at retail rates, burdening non‑solar customers and crowding out cheaper utility‑scale solar.
  • Other side: cuts are framed as regulatory capture that slows decarbonization and protects utility profits.
• Income‑based fixed charges for electricity bills are criticized as hidden taxes and potential incentives for higher usage.

Reliability, backup heat, and off‑grid considerations

• Skeptics stress that heat pumps are fully grid‑dependent, whereas fuel‑burning systems can be backed up with small generators, batteries, or local propane/oil tanks.
• Others point out that most modern gas furnaces also need electricity for blowers and controls; during outages, people use cars plus inverters, portable generators, or wood stoves.
• Several describe multi‑layer setups: heat pump or mini‑splits as primary, with gas/oil, electric space heaters, and wood stoves as successive backups.

System configurations & retrofits in cold climates

• Heat pump + 80% (or better) gas furnace is described as a strong combo: heat pump handles most heating and all cooling; gas steps in during very cold weather and for defrost cycles.
• Some note gas‑assisted defrost, where the furnace provides heat during the outdoor coil defrost cycle, is supported by certain controls.
• In the US Northeast (and Canada), many homes use steam or hydronic radiators. Retrofitting forced air ductwork for central heat pumps is reported as very expensive (estimates around $40k), and domestic hot water remains a separate problem.
• Mini‑splits are proposed as a retrofit option; critics argue you’d need many units for even heating, including bathrooms, though others say you can mix mini‑splits with electric baseboards or radiant floors.
• Air‑to‑water heat pumps for low‑temperature hydronics are discussed: they’re better suited to warmer climates or radiant floor systems than to traditional high‑temperature baseboards.

Costs, installation, and rebates

• International price comparisons show US mini‑split installations can cost many thousands of dollars, far above equipment cost, with HVAC labor/overhead dominating.
• Commenters complain that rebates (e.g., $6k heat pump incentives, solar subsidies) are often captured by installers through higher bids.
• Trade licensing, permit rules, and contractor “guild” dynamics in places like California are blamed for keeping HVAC and solar installation prices high.

Grid dependence, gas grid, and resilience

• One view: no one in cold states should rely solely on grid‑tied heat pumps; a fuel‑burning backup (gas, oil, propane, or wood) is seen as essential resilience.
• Another view: propane and stored fuels combined with small generators can offer off‑grid options; however, blackouts in well‑insulated homes under ~8 hours may not justify complex battery solutions.
• Some emphasize that gas delivery systems and propane tanks are often more reliable than electric grids, especially during storms, though this is asserted rather than rigorously evidenced.

Policy, incentives, and equity

• Several suggest that instead of piling on mandates and incentives, policymakers should “fix the broken electricity market” so that electrification is naturally cheaper and more attractive.
• Others argue climate urgency justifies strong policy even in imperfect markets, including bans on new gas hookups if carbon pricing fails politically.
• Debates over rooftop solar and rate design repeatedly raise distributional concerns:
  • Non‑solar, lower‑income customers potentially subsidizing solar owners under net metering.
  • High fixed charges or income‑based billing acting as hidden taxes and weakening price signals for conservation.

Ground-source heat pumps & municipal geothermal concepts

• Ground‑source (geothermal) heat pumps are praised for high efficiency and rare need for backup heat; one user cites only two uses of resistive backup in five years, once at –15°F and once due to low refrigerant.
• A “dream” scenario: municipalities build and maintain shared ground loops (vertical or street‑side wells) that homeowners can connect to, improving economies of scale, efficiency, and noise levels.
• Counterpoint: digging is inherently expensive; retrofitting existing neighborhoods can have very long payback periods (one estimate claims up to 50 years, though another cites a 12‑year ROI on a $50k system, indicating disagreement and local dependence).
• Consensus that if such infrastructure is laid during initial development (“dig once”), economics improve substantially.

Heat pumps vs climate goals and future pricing

• Some commenters view fossil fuels as so cheap and energy‑dense that aggressive pricing of externalities risks massive economic disruption.
• Others insist that when full climate damages are accounted for, gas is no longer competitive, and tools like carbon taxes or gas hookup bans become necessary.
• A parallel is drawn to EVs: current low operating costs are seen as temporary, with expectations that governments will eventually recoup lost fuel tax revenue via new fees once EV adoption is high.