A near 100pct renewable grid for Australia is feasible and affordable
Political and Economic Constraints
- Many argue the main barriers are political, not technical: entrenched coal and fuel lobbies, short-term tax-cut politics, and media that downplays lifestyle impacts.
- Australia is framed as suffering a “resource curse” similar to other resource-rich countries, though Norway is cited as a rare positive model.
- Some propose nationalising or heavily taxing coal exports and using proceeds for domestic renewables; others think industry would fiercely resist.
Grid Feasibility, Overbuild, and “Near 100%”
- Commenters compare the article’s 5% overbuild assumption to studies for Europe/US needing ~200% overbuild (3× capacity) without long-term storage.
- Targeting 99% rather than 100% and Australia’s strong solar/wind are suggested as reasons for lower overbuild.
- Several argue it’s reasonable to aim for ~90–95% renewables and keep gas peakers for rare events, since the last few percent become disproportionately expensive.
Storage, Hydrogen, and “Solved vs Unsolved”
- Large debate over long-term storage: some say integrating known tech (hydrogen, batteries, pumped hydro) is a “solved” engineering problem; others call that premature until proven at grid scale and economically competitive.
- Hydrogen is defended as useful for storing surplus energy and decarbonising industry (e.g., steel, ammonia), not just for reconverting to electricity.
- Critics highlight hydrogen’s low round-trip efficiency, high electrolyser capex, and wide cost ranges for storage, warning against “magical thinking.”
Australian Grid Stress and Heatwaves
- One participant with market modelling experience claims the grid is already near collapse on multi-day 40°C heatwaves, given transmission limits and lack of storage.
- Others counter that reliability has improved since past brownouts, largely due to renewables, and question the lack of shared data.
- Debate over whether air conditioning is easy (aligned with solar output) or hard (hot nights, smoke/heat haze, poor building insulation).
Rooftop Solar, Local Storage, and Industry
- High rooftop solar uptake in Australia is noted; some foresee near-full decarbonisation within a decade when combined with wind.
- A DIY example from Thailand illustrates how cheap large rooftop systems plus batteries can be when tariffs are low, prompting calls for Australia to drop green-tech import duties and massively subsidise household systems.
- Heavy industrial loads (e.g., aluminium smelters) are seen as harder to serve with variable renewables, likely needing large hydro or other firm capacity.