A near 100pct renewable grid for Australia is feasible and affordable
A claim that Australia could run a near‑100% renewable electricity grid with only a few hours of storage prompts debate over both technical and political feasibility. Commenters argue that while solar and wind are increasingly cheap and abundant, large investments in transmission, storage (including batteries and hydrogen), and housing efficiency are still needed, and existing fossil fuel and mining interests exert strong influence. Many suggest aiming for 90–95% renewables supplemented by gas peaker plants or e‑fuels as a pragmatic near‑term target, emphasizing that cost, reliability during heatwaves, and grid upgrades will ultimately determine the pace of the transition.
Political and Economic Constraints
- Many argue the main barriers are political, not technical: entrenched coal and fuel lobbies, short-term tax-cut politics, and media that downplays lifestyle impacts.
- Australia is framed as suffering a “resource curse” similar to other resource-rich countries, though Norway is cited as a rare positive model.
- Some propose nationalising or heavily taxing coal exports and using proceeds for domestic renewables; others think industry would fiercely resist.
Grid Feasibility, Overbuild, and “Near 100%”
- Commenters compare the article’s 5% overbuild assumption to studies for Europe/US needing ~200% overbuild (3× capacity) without long-term storage.
- Targeting 99% rather than 100% and Australia’s strong solar/wind are suggested as reasons for lower overbuild.
- Several argue it’s reasonable to aim for ~90–95% renewables and keep gas peakers for rare events, since the last few percent become disproportionately expensive.
Storage, Hydrogen, and “Solved vs Unsolved”
- Large debate over long-term storage: some say integrating known tech (hydrogen, batteries, pumped hydro) is a “solved” engineering problem; others call that premature until proven at grid scale and economically competitive.
- Hydrogen is defended as useful for storing surplus energy and decarbonising industry (e.g., steel, ammonia), not just for reconverting to electricity.
- Critics highlight hydrogen’s low round-trip efficiency, high electrolyser capex, and wide cost ranges for storage, warning against “magical thinking.”
Australian Grid Stress and Heatwaves
- One participant with market modelling experience claims the grid is already near collapse on multi-day 40°C heatwaves, given transmission limits and lack of storage.
- Others counter that reliability has improved since past brownouts, largely due to renewables, and question the lack of shared data.
- Debate over whether air conditioning is easy (aligned with solar output) or hard (hot nights, smoke/heat haze, poor building insulation).
Rooftop Solar, Local Storage, and Industry
- High rooftop solar uptake in Australia is noted; some foresee near-full decarbonisation within a decade when combined with wind.
- A DIY example from Thailand illustrates how cheap large rooftop systems plus batteries can be when tariffs are low, prompting calls for Australia to drop green-tech import duties and massively subsidise household systems.
- Heavy industrial loads (e.g., aluminium smelters) are seen as harder to serve with variable renewables, likely needing large hydro or other firm capacity.