Ask HN: Is it just me, or does the job market for IT seem bad today?

Hacker News Discussion ↗

Macro conditions and policy factors

  • Many see current weakness as fallout from 2022–23 overhiring and layoffs, high interest rates, and tighter access to capital.
  • Some argue a specific US tax change (IRS Section 174) made engineers/R&D more expensive by forcing amortization over 5 years instead of expensing, hitting startups especially; others suspect many firms simply ignore or work around it.
  • Debate over fiscal policy: one side wants constitutionally balanced budgets and less counter‑cyclical spending; others argue governments should spend more in downturns but acknowledge in practice “temporary” subsidies rarely get removed.

Job market signals and data

  • Multiple posters report far fewer recruiter contacts and dramatically lower response rates; applications often disappear into a “void.”
  • Data points shared: decline in software postings on Indeed; FRED index showing SE listings back to pre‑boom trend; HN “Who Is Hiring” ratio indicating more seekers per job; graphs showing ~80k fewer “information” jobs than 2022 peak.
  • Some think this is a reversion to normal after a zero‑rate, pandemic‑driven hiring mania rather than a collapse.

AI and productivity

  • Sharp disagreement: some see AI/LLMs as directly reducing developer demand (“do more with fewer devs”); others think tools are too unreliable or net‑negative in productivity.
  • Several expect employers to use AI gains mainly to raise output expectations, not immediately cut headcount.

Age, experience, geography, and outsourcing

  • Many perceive worsening prospects for mid‑40s+ workers and increased offshoring or hiring in cheaper regions (e.g., LATAM, Eastern Europe).
  • Counterexamples: some senior engineers (20+ years) report steady offers, strong leverage, and big raises, especially with in‑office roles and clear productivity metrics.
  • LCoL markets (e.g., Warsaw) described as noticeably easier than US coastal cities.

Interview process and hiring practices

  • Common complaints: multi‑round gauntlets, unpaid take‑home projects, ghosting, and large candidate funnels (dozens of finalists for modest roles).
  • Some companies report hundreds of applicants yet no one clearing even simple coding screens; others see fake or stale job postings.
  • Networking and referrals are repeatedly cited as crucial; cold applications often fail.

Role‑specific trends

  • Stronger demand reported for DevOps/platform/infrastructure roles and self‑hosting expertise; AI/ML remains a bright spot.
  • Native mobile jobs seen as shrinking in favor of cross‑platform “full‑stack app” roles.
  • Legacy/“old tech” in non‑tech companies and government still offers stable, less glamorous work.