the US government has to start paying for things again
Debt Thresholds and Credit Ratings
- Several comments challenge the article’s “no magic number” framing.
- Some argue there must be a tipping point (e.g., loss of reserve currency or further credit downgrades), even if it can’t be precisely known.
- Others note the US has already lost some AAA ratings without a crisis, and that prior downgrades were driven more by political dysfunction than raw debt size.
Role and Impact of Government Spending
- Debate over whether high federal spending “bloats” the economy or underpins growth.
- Critics say government crowds out productive private activity, props up “leeches,” and that cutting spending could raise long-run GDP after a painful adjustment.
- Defenders emphasize that government is not a profit-seeking firm, funds essential non-market services (defense, Medicare, Social Security), and can rationally use debt for long-lived investments.
Deficits, Politics, and Voter Incentives
- Multiple comments argue voters don’t really care about deficits; politicians are punished for surpluses and rewarded for tax cuts and spending.
- Disagreement over whether presidents or Congress deserve primary blame, but broad consensus that both parties have contributed and campaign rhetoric about “fiscal responsibility” is mostly symbolic.
- Some frame debt as a predictable outcome of wars, crises, and tax cuts not matched to spending.
Entitlements and Healthcare Costs
- Rising Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid outlays seen as main structural driver.
- One camp argues universal or more government-run healthcare would reduce overall costs and match other rich countries’ outcomes.
- Others claim greater government involvement historically correlates with higher US healthcare costs, countered by replies citing lower costs in VA/Medicare and abroad.
- Medicaid reimbursement is criticized as too low to sustain some providers.
Nature of Money, the Fed, and “Printing”
- Disagreement over whether “national debt” is meaningfully different from money creation.
- Some view bonds as internal accounting the government can always roll over or monetize, with the real issue being inflation and wealth transfer to finance.
- Others stress that Social Security trust-fund holdings and Fed-owned Treasuries are still “real” liabilities and not costless.
- Confusion and dispute over whether the Federal Reserve is best seen as a government entity, a private system, or both.
Risk, Default, and Inflation Scenarios
- Speculation about eventual outcomes: explicit default, implicit default via inflation, or perpetual rollover.
- Some distrust Treasuries, preferring equities or gold to avoid sovereign risk; others point out there is no clearly safer alternative.
- Concern that large debt plus rising rates makes the US vulnerable to future rate shocks; interest-to-GDP is flagged as more informative than debt-to-GDP alone.
US vs. EU and Recent Macro “Experiment”
- One view: post‑2020 US demonstrates that higher deficit spending can coexist with stronger growth and lower inflation than lower‑deficit regions like the EU, especially given immigration and stimulus.
- Skeptics say the timeframe is too short to draw conclusions; the “experiment” isn’t over and longer-term iceberg risks remain.