Personal aviation is about to get interesting (2023)

MOSAIC Rule Change and Scope

• Discussion centers on the FAA’s new MOSAIC rules, now finalized, which:
  • Greatly expand what sport pilots can fly (higher stall speed limits, more capable four‑seat aircraft).
  • Allow more capable aircraft to be certified as Light Sport using less onerous processes.
• Some celebrate this as the FAA “for once” making things easier for average pilots and enabling modern, higher‑performance designs.
• Others worry about under‑trained or older pilots suddenly operating much faster, heavier aircraft, and question how training, endorsements, and insurance will adapt.

Regulation vs Innovation and Safety

• Strong criticism of FAA certification costs for airframes, engines, and avionics:
  • Belief that red tape has frozen GA technology in the 1950s and indirectly cost lives by blocking cheaper glass cockpits, autopilots, modern engines, and traffic/wx systems.
  • Example: certified avionics costing thousands more than identical non‑certified units.
• Counterpoints:
  • FAA is credited with saving vastly more lives overall, especially in airliners.
  • Experimental and LSA categories already allow innovation; results have been mixed rather than obviously safer or cheaper.

Technology, Training, and Operational Risk

• Enthusiasm for:
  • Ballistic parachutes, solid‑state instruments, ADS‑B and FLARM, modern engines (Rotax, diesel Jet‑A), and potential OTA nav‑data updates.
• Cautions:
  • Satellite weather is delayed and only strategic, not for “threading storms.”
  • Overreliance on iPads and non‑certified apps has contributed to accidents.
  • Cirrus‑style parachutes only improved safety after intensive training on when to pull; technology can attract risk‑seeking, under‑skilled pilots.
• Consensus that most GA accidents are still pilot error: judgment, weather, and “get‑there‑itis,” not pure mechanical failure.

Engines, Fuel, and Environmental Concerns

• Debate over legacy Lycoming/Continental vs newer Rotax and other designs:
  • Some argue old “Lycosaurus” engines are ultra‑reliable by design; others say carburetors and leaded avgas persist mainly due to certification inertia and fleet age.
  • Data cited suggesting Rotax failure rates comparable to legacy engines, but European anecdote points to integration and maintenance issues.
• Climate and noise:
  • Concern that expanding personal aviation worsens emissions and exposes communities to noise and lead.
  • Others counter with examples of relatively good mpg at high speed and niche point‑to‑point use cases.

Scale, Infrastructure, and Economics

• Skepticism that personal aviation will ever scale:
  • High costs (fuel, maintenance, hangar, training), weather sensitivity, limited range, and existing ATC/mechanic shortages.
  • Fears of “flying car” externalities: noise corridors, de facto airports everywhere, and repeating road‑traffic mistakes in the sky.
• Optimists see MOSAIC mainly enabling somewhat cheaper, more capable niche aircraft and incremental safety improvements rather than a Jetsons‑style revolution.