Brexit Hit to UK Economy Double Official Estimate, Study Finds

State of Opinion on Brexit

• Many participants treat Brexit as clearly harmful; debate is over how bad, not whether.
• Several note a social and political taboo around revisiting or reversing it, despite polls suggesting a majority now see it as a mistake.
• Some still defend Brexit as an idea but blame “botched implementation” or argue “real Brexit” was never delivered.
• A minority defend it on sovereignty/identity grounds even if it’s economically worse, and say those motives should be respected as such.

Economy, Estimates, and Competence

• The linked study (and related NBER paper) claiming a 6–8% GDP hit is cited as confirmation of serious damage.
• Others emphasize the uncertainty in counterfactual estimates and say the UK hasn’t obviously underperformed all peers.
• A recurring view: most Leave voters didn’t expect economic gain; it was an emotional or identity decision.
• Several argue the core problem is competence: no clear negotiating goals, weak leadership, and poor use of any new freedoms.

EU, Sovereignty, and Democracy

• Pro‑Brexit commenters criticize the EU as undemocratic, technocratic, over‑centralizing (“ever closer union”), and structurally trapping eurozone members.
• Critics counter that EU elections were more proportional than Westminster’s, and that the UK itself is highly undemocratic.
• There is disagreement over whether “sovereignty” is meaningfully different from regulatory alignment required for trade.

Immigration, Identity, and Nationalism

• Many see anti‑immigrant sentiment, xenophobia, and class/identity (“posh Remainers vs Leavers”) as key drivers.
• Some argue migrants are scapegoated for problems largely unrelated to immigration.
• Debate over fiscal impact of EU vs non‑EU migrants; one study is invoked to claim both groups are net contributors on average, but its assumptions are challenged.
• Post‑Brexit policy has shifted migration from EU to non‑EU sources, with continued high numbers and rising nationalist politics.

Regulation and “Lost Opportunities”

• A promised bonfire of EU regulations mostly didn’t happen: UK law initially copy‑pasted EU rules, and review has been slow.
• Commenters stress that large-scale divergence would be costly and would not make sense for exporters who must still meet EU standards.
• Result: extra bureaucracy (e.g., customs, dual markings like UKCA/CE, Northern Ireland frictions) with few visible deregulatory gains.

Media, Foreign Influence, and Legitimacy

• Several threads link Brexit to domestic tabloid propaganda and alleged Russian money/online influence.
• Others focus on the narrow 52–48 margin and unresolved issues for Scotland and Northern Ireland, questioning whether this constituted a clear mandate for a permanent break.