Dude, where's my supersonic jet?
Perceived Need and Use Cases
- Many commenters see little pressing need for civilian supersonic now that in‑flight Wi‑Fi, laptops, and decent cabins let you work or be entertained; time in the air isn’t “wasted” like in the 1970s.
- Others argue long-haul flights (12–20+ hours, or multi‑leg 27‑hour trips) are physically miserable and would gladly pay ~2× fare to halve flight time, especially when they can’t sleep on planes.
- Several people stress that travel time should be considered door‑to‑door; for many routes, halving cruise time only shaves a few hours from a 9–12 hour total. It’s transformative only when it changes “buckets” (e.g., 15h → 5h makes a same‑day intercontinental trip plausible).
- Consensus: the natural early market is elites and private/business jets, not mass-market economy.
Economics and Market Structure
- Strong skepticism that supersonic can be run “at today’s business-class prices” while carrying far fewer passengers and burning much more fuel.
- Moving high-yield business passengers to dedicated supersonic planes would strip profit from subsonic widebodies, likely raising economy fares.
- Several question claimed order books as mostly non-binding options/LOIs, and note that new airliners and engines typically need 5–10+ years and many billions to certify.
- Past Concorde economics are cited: high ticket prices, marginal profitability, limited range, and vulnerability to fuel prices.
Environmental, Noise, and Regulation
- Multiple commenters criticize the article for almost ignoring environmental impact; they argue aviation emissions should be reduced, not sped up.
- Sonic boom and general noise are seen as major externalities; overland supersonic bans are discussed, along with political motives and potential future relaxation.
- “Boomless cruise” and AI‑driven atmospheric routing are met with skepticism: seen as marketing that may not reliably prevent booms.
Technical Feasibility and Engineering Debates
- The article’s claim that Concorde burned 52% of its fuel taxiing is debunked with accident reports and historical papers; real numbers are ~1% taxi, ~20% to reach cruise. This error undermines trust in the piece.
- Long subthreads discuss taxi fuel use, electric or tow-based taxiing, and hybrid concepts; weight and complexity usually dominate any savings.
- LNG as jet fuel is debated: higher energy per kg and cryogenic cooling help at high Mach, but lower volumetric density and tank mass hurt subsonic jets. Methane leakage is an additional climate concern.
- Safety, sonic-boom mitigation, and especially engine design/certification are seen as huge obstacles; some think certain hypersonic programs are more technically grounded than the startups highlighted.
Alternatives and Experience Improvements
- Many argue the biggest time and pain reductions lie in ground-side changes: security “theater,” boarding processes, airport design, and VIP/tarmac transfers.
- High-speed rail is touted as the better answer for short-haul (1–3h) routes—where airport overhead dominates—though right-of-way and politics make new lines hard.
- Others say money would be better spent making existing flights less miserable (more space, better cabins) rather than faster.
Attitudes Toward Progress and Hype
- Some see a “cult of progress” chasing shiny, high-speed tech (supersonic, Hyperloop) while ignoring more prosaic but higher-ROI efficiency improvements.
- Others welcome supersonic as a premium niche that, if it works, may eventually drive down costs more broadly—as happened with aviation overall.
- The article itself is criticized as sloppy, possibly LLM‑like, overly credulous of startup claims, and light on industry realities.