Goldman Sachs now reckons that oil could take out the 2008 record of $147

Original Article ↗ Hacker News Discussion ↗

Oil price levels and real terms

  • Multiple comments adjust the 2008 high:
    • $147/bbl in 2008 ≈ $218/bbl in today’s US dollars.
    • In euros, that 2008 price ≈ €140 today, or about $160, illustrating that “records” depend on currency.
  • Some argue long‑term value comparisons are inherently fuzzy because purchasing power and buyer groups change over time.

Forecasts and market structure

  • Skepticism toward Goldman Sachs and other banks’ oil forecasts:
    • Claims they have been consistently off and may be “sandbagging” or front‑running clients.
    • Counterpoint: bank forecasts do not differ much from peers; refining crack spreads suggest higher prices but industry views are not uniform.
  • One commenter relays industry anecdotes: Southeast Asia could face acute shortages for months even if conflict ended soon, with the US more insulated on supply but not on price.

Gasoline prices, inflation, and US politics

  • Observations that US gasoline has been around $3.50/gal on average both in 2008 and now, implying surprising nominal stability over ~20 years.
  • Others stress people react to recent hikes, not long‑term averages; even modest increases feel painful.
  • Claim that whenever US retail gas exceeds ~$4/gal, Congress becomes vulnerable to partisan turnover, regardless of which party is in power.

Iran conflict, naval warfare, and war crimes debate

  • Large sub‑thread on the US sinking an Iranian warship:
    • One side: the ship was unarmed, on exercises, its status was known, and survivors were allegedly not aided; this is framed as a textbook war crime under Geneva obligations to rescue shipwrecked combatants.
    • Opposing view: a flagged enemy warship in wartime is always a lawful target, armed or not; submarines lack practical ability and are not strictly required to conduct rescues, especially if this creates risk; notifying or relying on other SAR assets can satisfy legal duties.
    • Several note that submarine practice since WWII and precedents like the Laconia incident and the San Remo Manual create gray areas; legally “hard to pin down,” ethically “abhorrent” to some.

Geopolitics: US, China, and oil

  • Some suggest the US benefits from high oil prices to pressure China; others counter that high prices hurt the US more, while China is rapidly electrifying and leans on coal and domestic renewables.
  • Debate over whether current US policy reflects strategic “4D chess,” Israeli influence, or impulsive decision‑making, with many leaning toward incompetence rather than master planning.

Macroeconomic and distributional impacts

  • Rough rule of thumb offered: each 1¢ increase in US gasoline, sustained for a year, removes about $1B from other consumer spending.
  • Higher prices are seen as transferring wealth from general consumers to oil producers, described cynically as “making America feel poor again.”