Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?

Original Article ↗ Hacker News Discussion ↗

Project concept & reception

  • Simple, topical site visualizing whether the Strait of Hormuz is “open,” combining crossing data with a big YES/NO indicator and a ship map.
  • Many commenters find it clever, funny, and useful as a one-off data‑viz project, even if not perfectly accurate.
  • Some suggest expanding to other choke points (e.g., Red Sea) and color‑coding ship types.

Data sources, thresholds & lag

  • Current main data: IMF PortWatch crossings, lagging by ~4 days.
  • Binary rule: traffic below 25% of prior‑year crossings → “NO”, otherwise “open.”
  • Several note the lag undermines the headline “Is it open yet?” and recommend clearer caveats.
  • Live AIS/ship‑tracking APIs (MarineTraffic, VesselFinder, Kpler, etc.) are described as expensive, enterprise‑gated, or unreliable at free tiers; one commenter offers to sponsor a persistent key.

AIS limitations & why ships don’t “just go”

  • AIS-based counts are inherently incomplete: ships may switch off AIS, spoof positions, or be part of a “shadow fleet.”
  • Counterpoint: even with AIS off in the strait, you can infer crossings from positions before/after the Gulf.
  • Multiple comments emphasize insurance and risk: war‑zone transit often voids coverage, shipowners don’t want to lose vessels, and crews don’t want to risk attacks by drones/missiles.

“Open” vs “traversed” & current status

  • Distinction drawn between:
    • A) whether the strait is physically safe/usable.
    • B) whether ships are actually transiting, given fear and insurance.
  • Conflicting reports: some media say traffic is halted; others show multiple ships currently transiting and describe the strait as “mostly open” but subject to Iranian tolls.
  • Overall situation is described as “unclear” and fast‑changing relative to the site’s 4‑day data.

Prediction markets debate

  • Site now surfaces Polymarket odds as an auxiliary indicator.
  • Supporters see prediction markets as highly informative “wisdom of crowds.”
  • Critics call them obscene in war contexts, creating moral hazard and perverse incentives if actors can influence outcomes they bet on; also note lack of regulation and parallels to other speculative markets.

Technical & legal issues

  • Map uses Leaflet + Carto tiles; commenters flag missing OpenStreetMap attribution, later corrected.
  • Several warn that scraping MarineTraffic violates terms of service; others share Puppeteer code to do so anyway.
  • Alternative ideas: satellite imagery + vessel‑detection ML, though public imagery is delayed, low‑res, often scrubbed, and politically sensitive.