Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?
A small web project tracks whether shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has resumed normal levels, using delayed IMF port data and, controversially, prediction market odds as a proxy in the absence of affordable live AIS feeds. Commenters explore the technical and legal hurdles of real‑time vessel tracking, from expensive proprietary satellite/AIS datasets and spoofed or disabled transponders to scraping and attribution issues, while also noting how insurance, military risk, and international law shape whether the strait is “open” in practice. Concerns are raised about the accuracy and ethics of both imperfect data sources and war‑related prediction markets, even as many praise the site as a timely, informative visualization of a strategically critical chokepoint.
Project concept & reception
- Simple, topical site visualizing whether the Strait of Hormuz is “open,” combining crossing data with a big YES/NO indicator and a ship map.
- Many commenters find it clever, funny, and useful as a one-off data‑viz project, even if not perfectly accurate.
- Some suggest expanding to other choke points (e.g., Red Sea) and color‑coding ship types.
Data sources, thresholds & lag
- Current main data: IMF PortWatch crossings, lagging by ~4 days.
- Binary rule: traffic below 25% of prior‑year crossings → “NO”, otherwise “open.”
- Several note the lag undermines the headline “Is it open yet?” and recommend clearer caveats.
- Live AIS/ship‑tracking APIs (MarineTraffic, VesselFinder, Kpler, etc.) are described as expensive, enterprise‑gated, or unreliable at free tiers; one commenter offers to sponsor a persistent key.
AIS limitations & why ships don’t “just go”
- AIS-based counts are inherently incomplete: ships may switch off AIS, spoof positions, or be part of a “shadow fleet.”
- Counterpoint: even with AIS off in the strait, you can infer crossings from positions before/after the Gulf.
- Multiple comments emphasize insurance and risk: war‑zone transit often voids coverage, shipowners don’t want to lose vessels, and crews don’t want to risk attacks by drones/missiles.
“Open” vs “traversed” & current status
- Distinction drawn between:
- A) whether the strait is physically safe/usable.
- B) whether ships are actually transiting, given fear and insurance.
- Conflicting reports: some media say traffic is halted; others show multiple ships currently transiting and describe the strait as “mostly open” but subject to Iranian tolls.
- Overall situation is described as “unclear” and fast‑changing relative to the site’s 4‑day data.
Prediction markets debate
- Site now surfaces Polymarket odds as an auxiliary indicator.
- Supporters see prediction markets as highly informative “wisdom of crowds.”
- Critics call them obscene in war contexts, creating moral hazard and perverse incentives if actors can influence outcomes they bet on; also note lack of regulation and parallels to other speculative markets.
Technical & legal issues
- Map uses Leaflet + Carto tiles; commenters flag missing OpenStreetMap attribution, later corrected.
- Several warn that scraping MarineTraffic violates terms of service; others share Puppeteer code to do so anyway.
- Alternative ideas: satellite imagery + vessel‑detection ML, though public imagery is delayed, low‑res, often scrubbed, and politically sensitive.