Stripe and Advent have made a joint offer to acquire PayPal – sources
Stripe and private equity firm Advent have reportedly made a more than $53 billion bid to acquire PayPal, raising the prospect that Stripe, PayPal, Venmo, Braintree and related services could sit under one corporate roof. Commenters weigh whether this would create dangerous market concentration in online payments—especially for “card-not-present” transactions—or instead strengthen a counterweight to entrenched Visa/Mastercard networks. Concerns focus on weaker antitrust enforcement, potential fee increases, stricter risk and content policies, and the cultural and regulatory complexity of integrating two large, very different payment empires.
Market power & antitrust
- Many see this as a consolidation land‑grab before tougher antitrust enforcement returns.
- Concerns that combining Stripe, PayPal, Venmo, Braintree, Xoom, etc. would create very high market concentration in online card‑not‑present (CNP) payments, with references to an “absurdly high” HHI.
- Some expect regulators to demand divestitures (e.g., Venmo, Braintree); others are cynical that US antitrust is effectively for sale or politically captured.
- Counterpoint: states and the EU can and do act; past state actions have derailed or chilled deals.
Where the real monopoly is
- Several argue the true “cartel” is Visa/Mastercard; Stripe/PayPal are just higher‑layer gateways.
- Debate over whether their dominance is due to regulation (regulatory capture, anti‑competitive contracts) or lack of it.
- Some hope large processors like a combined Stripe+PayPal could negotiate harder against card networks.
PayPal vs Stripe: roles, UX, and trust
- Consensus: PayPal is widely used and trusted by consumers, especially for buyer protection, not exposing card details, and easy subscription cancellation.
- But many report negative experiences: dark patterns, account bans, poor support, currency conversion tricks, and weak or slow dispute resolution.
- Stripe is generally seen as developer‑ and merchant‑friendly, with cleaner APIs and faster payment flows, but not a consumer brand.
- Some welcome one combined integration for merchants; others fear fee hikes once direct competition is gone.
“Morality,” risk, and high‑risk merchants
- Stripe is described as more restrictive, often banning cannabis‑adjacent or adult‑adjacent businesses and sometimes misclassifying legitimate services.
- Some say this is driven by Visa/Mastercard rules and chargeback risk; others say PayPal manages to serve these segments profitably, implying Stripe is selectively risk‑averse.
- Concern that Stripe’s stricter policies could propagate through PayPal if merged, reducing options for high‑risk but legal businesses.
Alternatives and long‑term direction
- Multiple local and public rails (Pix in Brazil, WeChat Pay, Wero/iDEAL and SEPA‑based solutions in Europe, FedNow/RTP in the US) are cited as models that bypass card networks and PSPs.
- Some predict app‑to‑app or bank‑to‑bank systems will erode legacy PSP revenues; others note merchants selling into many countries can’t practically integrate every local rail.
Strategic/financial angles
- Discussion that PayPal brings a bank charter (at least in the EU; US status disputed in‑thread), consumer wallet, and data, potentially enabling a vertically integrated Stripe stack (issuing, processing, network, banking).
- Users note PayPal’s substantial revenues and assets, yet question whether the offer multiple is too low given its earnings history.