You Win or You Learn
Tumblr’s future is in doubt after an internal memo revealed it is losing around $30 million a year despite a 139‑person product and marketing team, prompting its owner Automattic to scale back active development. Commenters trace the crisis to an inability to monetize a highly change‑averse user base, the earlier ban on adult content, and broader structural problems with ad‑supported social media, where only a few giants like Meta reliably turn a profit. The thread also touches on how app‑store rules, EU regulation, and shifting user habits constrain alternatives such as ActivityPub integration or porn‑friendly strategies that might otherwise help Tumblr or its would‑be competitors.
Tumblr’s financial situation and strategic shift
- Internal memo and CEO comments indicate Tumblr is losing around $30M/year, even at or near peak revenue.
- About 139 people work on product/marketing; some see the loss per employee as unsustainable.
- Many interpret the memo as moving Tumblr from active feature development to “maintenance/babysitting,” though leadership insists they still see a path with a smaller team.
- Some argue the core error was expecting hypergrowth and never aligning costs with realistic income.
Monetization experiments and community pushback
- Tumblr has tried many revenue ideas: creator subscriptions, tipping, promoted posts (Blaze), cosmetic checkmarks, merch, ad-free options, and whimsical features (e.g., virtual pets, themed tabs).
- Adoption is liked by users but too small to cover infrastructure or salaries.
- Attempts at paywalled or patron-style features triggered intense backlash; the user base is described as hostile to most monetization.
- Some think a small subscription paywall might have worked if done early and without other “enshittification.”
NSFW content, moderation, and platform constraints
- The earlier mass purge of adult content is widely seen as a turning point that “alienated” users and cratered value.
- Others note Reddit and Twitter kept NSFW by hiding it rather than banning it, but point out they still made concessions to advertisers.
- Several commenters argue app-store rules, payment processors, and coordinated anti-porn campaigns make embracing porn as a business model increasingly risky or impossible.
- There are claims Tumblr’s moderation disproportionately flags LGBTQ+ content; appeals and communication are said to be poor.
Missed Twitter-replacement window
- People recall talk of Tumblr replacing Twitter during the Musk takeover but say Tumblr’s UX (reblog chains, dashboard focus) and product decisions made it a poor fit.
- Some think the “bluecheck” parody and lack of coherent strategy show organizational dysfunction and squandered opportunity.
Threads, EU regulation, and the wider ecosystem
- Threads’ EU absence is linked to the Digital Markets Act; some see it as necessary regulation, others as regulatory capture that entrenches incumbents.
- Discussion lists many social platforms that struggle financially versus a small set (Meta apps, TikTok, productivity tools, dating apps) that appear profitable.
- Consensus: social networks at scale are hard to monetize sustainably, especially with ad-based models and user-generated content.
Technical and UX side topics
- Tumblr reportedly runs on ~1,000+ servers, ~8 PB of storage, and handles ~100k requests/sec and 1 PB/day bandwidth; some were surprised costs are that high.
- Debate over HTTP vs HTTPS for non-secret data, with arguments about integrity, privacy, and traffic shaping.
- Short discussion on URL patterns for usernames and their impact on usability and engineering complexity.
Alternatives and user desires
- Users mention cohost, Pixelfed, WordPress, Neocities, Lemmy, and simple photo galleries as alternatives, often preferring minimal algorithms and distraction-free design.
- Some still find Tumblr uniquely compelling for art/fandom communities and would be sad to lose it, while others see its decline as inevitable.