You are not late (2014)
A decade after Kevin Kelly’s 2014 essay “You are not late,” commenters reassess whether it’s still a good time to build things on the internet amid platform consolidation, trillion‑dollar tech monopolies, and a perceived slowdown in transformative consumer innovations. Many argue that while the “low‑hanging fruit” of early web and mobile eras is gone and big platforms can crush or absorb startups, new waves—from AI and WebGPU to digital payments and IoT in developing countries—continue to open meaningful niches, especially in unglamorous or underserved domains. Others question whether these advances are actually improving human well‑being, calling for a return to more open, understandable computing that augments human intellect rather than locking users into proprietary ecosystems.
Perception of Being “Too Late”
- Many argue you’re never “too late”: every era feels mature in hindsight, yet new waves keep emerging.
- Others counter that low‑hanging fruit in software is largely gone; today’s opportunities are narrower and more constrained by incumbents.
- Some see “late” as a quality issue: you can still win, but the chance to reshape the whole landscape (like early Microsoft/Google) was bigger in earlier decades.
What Actually Changed Since 2014
- Significant advances cited: mobile and cloud penetration, collaboration tools (e.g., design in the browser, real‑time editing), Zoom‑style video calling, modern dev tooling, containers, document databases.
- Consumer‑visible changes: app‑based ride‑hailing, e‑commerce/logistics, digital payments, wearables, IoT, streaming quality, messaging platforms.
- Others see the decade as “more social media + crypto hype,” with much innovation feeling incremental or consolidated into mega‑platforms.
AI: Revolution, Hype, and Fundamentals
- Some see AI as the true revolution of the last decade, with huge unknowns and major entrepreneurial potential.
- Others find “sprinkle AI on X” shallow, preferring a return to Engelbart/Kay‑style “augmenting intellect,” open systems, and man‑machine symbiosis.
- Debate over open vs closed AI: open‑weights models may commoditize capabilities and erode the moat of API‑only giants.
Platform Power, Monopolies, and Market Structure
- Many note that big tech platforms (search, app stores, clouds) crush or pre‑empt startups, or buy them early.
- Some call for antitrust or at least enforcing rules against anti‑competitive practices.
- Others highlight “digital feudalism” and closed ecosystems that block alternative app stores or distribution models.
Global and Sectoral Differences
- Several commenters say developed‑world users underrate progress in places like SE Asia and India: mobile payments, connectivity, app‑based services, and digital commerce have been transformative.
- Niche/“uncool” verticals (e.g., tugboat captains, small contractors) still have profitable, under‑served software needs.
Quality of Opportunities and Low‑Hanging Fruit
- View 1: low‑hanging software fruit was picked, but new “ladders” (cheap cloud, LLMs, hobbyist hardware) expose new reachable problems.
- View 2: opportunities exist but are riskier, more incremental, and often require capital and navigating platform constraints.
Societal Impact and Wellbeing
- Some celebrate richer creative communities and learning (e.g., online art education, niche scenes).
- Others question whether we’re “better off,” given surveillance, bloat, consolidation, and social media harms; the success metric for the last decade is seen as unclear.