The walls of Apple's garden are tumbling down

Apple, EU Regulation, and Market Power

• Many argue Apple cannot realistically threaten to exit the EU: Europe is ~25% of Apple revenue, and shareholders would revolt over abandoning such a large market.
• Others note EU policymakers will sacrifice popularity for principle, so “we’ll leave” wouldn’t give Apple much leverage anyway.
• Some see Apple’s complicated DMA compliance (e.g., half‑measures on alternative app stores) as proof the region is too valuable to walk away from.

App Store Economics and Competing Services

• Debate centers on the 30%/15% App Store cut: critics call it rent‑seeking that squeezes margins for low‑margin businesses like Spotify; defenders note it only applies to on‑device signups and argue developers can route around it.
• Spotify and Epic are viewed by some as self‑interested, not altruistic, but others say Apple’s dual role (platform + competitor) is inherently anti‑competitive.
• Some propose profit‑sharing instead of revenue‑sharing; others say Apple’s store dominance makes third‑party stores or sideloading necessary to restore bargaining power.

iMessage, Green Bubbles, and Messaging Standards

• US‑centric “green bubble” stigma is widely discussed: teens and even adults face real social pressure to use iPhones; group chats often marginalize Android users.
• Outside the US (e.g., UK/Europe), WhatsApp/Snapchat dominate, and iMessage is mostly irrelevant, so the problem is seen as cultural rather than technical.
• One side frames bullying as a social issue, not something regulation should solve; the other says once a company replaces SMS with a proprietary protocol at scale, interoperability obligations and regulation are warranted.
• Apple’s delayed RCS support is seen by some as regulator‑driven, by others as a technical maturity or China‑driven move.

Walled Garden vs Openness and Sideloading

• Fans of the “walled garden” emphasize safety, privacy, coherent UX, and protection from spammy/open‑relay‑style abuse; they fear EU/DOJ will degrade the experience.
• Opponents argue that safety can remain the default while still allowing sideloading or alternate stores behind advanced settings; “grandma scams” are seen as solvable trade‑offs.
• There is concern that large players (Epic, Meta) could shift users to their own app stores and recreate old toolbar/adware problems, but others welcome that as user choice.

Lock‑In, Switching Costs, and Developer Relations

• Several note that real lock‑in comes from accumulated data, services, and devices, not just one app like iMessage; moving ecosystems is described as tedious and error‑prone.
• Some feel Apple has become increasingly developer‑hostile and extractive under its services push; others counter that user satisfaction remains high and developers still make more per user on iOS.

Broader Tech & Power Concerns

• Thread touches on parallels with Ma Bell: centralized control over critical communications is seen as a long‑term risk for censorship and manipulation, even if not yet abused.
• Others zoom out: tech is maturing, social networks and mobile are plateauing, and AI hype may be the last big “super‑cycle”; Apple’s misses (car, Vision Pro, AI lag) raise questions about its future dominance.